Friday , 14 February 2025
Home Energy: Technology, News & Trends Hybrid Power Growth vs. Pure Electric Development: The Competitive Landscape

Hybrid Power Growth vs. Pure Electric Development: The Competitive Landscape

27
Hybrid vs Electric

In 2024, hybrid vehicles are seeing rapid growth, increasing their share in the new energy vehicle (NEV) market. Industry experts predict that this growth trend will continue in the coming years. However, as lithium battery prices continue to fall and charging infrastructure improves, coupled with the looming deadline for zero emissions, electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to remain the dominant force driving the future of the automotive industry.

The Rise of Hybrid Vehicles

The shift towards hybrid vehicles, coupled with a slowdown in pure electric car sales, marks a significant trend in the 2024 NEV market. According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), total NEV sales in China reached 12.87 million units in 2024, a 35.5% year-on-year increase. Of this, pure electric vehicles (EVs) accounted for 60% of sales, a 10.4 percentage point decrease from the previous year. In contrast, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) saw a remarkable surge, making up more than 40% of total NEV sales, a 10.4 percentage point increase from 2023.

This shift in sales distribution is reflective of trends observed in global markets as well. A recent report by the British research firm IDTechEx highlighted that, after several years of double-digit growth, the global growth rate of pure electric vehicles in major markets is slowing, while hybrid vehicles—especially PHEVs—are experiencing a banner year. The firm estimates that global hybrid car sales grew by nearly 75% in the past year, reaching over 7 million units.

Hybrid Vehicles on the Rise

The trend toward hybrid vehicles has been accelerating for several years. According to CAAM, hybrid vehicle sales in China grew tenfold between 2020 and 2023, with 2024 sales expected to reach 5.14 million units. This increase has boosted hybrids’ share of the overall NEV market from 18.3% in 2020 to 40% in 2024. CAAM’s Vice Secretary-General Chen Shihua notes that plug-in hybrids have become a new driving force behind the growth of China’s NEV market. Experts from the IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers) have also observed that consumers in China, Europe, and the U.S. are increasingly shifting toward hybrid vehicles, with their sales growth surpassing that of pure electric vehicles.

Two Key Drivers: Cost and Range

There are two main factors behind the acceleration of hybrid vehicle sales: cost and range. According to IDTechEx, the high cost of electric vehicles is primarily driven by the price of their batteries. While economies of scale and advancements in battery technology have lowered EV prices in recent years, the cost of batteries remains a significant barrier to the widespread adoption of pure electric vehicles. In contrast, hybrid vehicles use smaller batteries, reducing production costs. Additionally, hybrid vehicles do not sacrifice range due to their smaller batteries, as the internal combustion engine alleviates “range anxiety” for drivers.

Dunn Insights, an American automotive consulting firm, notes that the U.S. and China share similar market characteristics. In wealthier cities and coastal areas, electric vehicles are dominant, but in rural areas where long-distance driving is necessary and public charging infrastructure is lacking, many consumers are opting for hybrid vehicles.

The Ultimate Goal: Pure Electric

Despite the rise of hybrid vehicles, the future of the automotive industry remains focused on pure electric cars. Zhang Yongwei, Vice Chairman and Secretary-General of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum, predicts that plug-in hybrids and extended-range electric vehicles will continue to see rapid growth through 2025, with their share of the NEV market approaching 50%. According to a report by Beryllium Consulting, the global hybrid vehicle market is expected to reach a value of $1.67 trillion by 2030.

So, does the future of NEVs belong to hybrids? The answer, according to IDTechEx’s latest research, is no. By 2045, pure electric vehicles are projected to account for 75% of the global automotive market, with hybrid vehicles making up only about 5%. Bloomberg also predicts that hybrid vehicle sales will peak at 9.2 million units by 2030, but by then, for every hybrid car sold, nearly four pure electric cars will be sold.

IDTechEx believes that the core issue with hybrid vehicles is their limited environmental benefits. The actual carbon emissions of hybrid vehicles are, on average, 267% higher than their test data suggests. In the European Union, for example, all new cars must achieve zero CO2 emissions by 2035, effectively excluding hybrids from the market. Furthermore, IDTechEx predicts that the cost of lithium batteries will continue to decrease over the next decade, making pure electric vehicles more affordable. Once the prices of pure electric and hybrid vehicles converge, the lower operating costs of EVs, due to the significantly cheaper cost of electricity compared to gasoline, will further shift consumer preference.

Hybrid Vehicles as a Transition Technology

Despite the challenges that hybrids face in the long term, Zhang Xiang, Secretary-General of the International Smart Transport Technology Association, believes that hybrid vehicles will continue to experience strong growth through 2025, particularly in markets like China and Europe. However, he argues that hybrid technology is ultimately a transitional solution. With their complex systems and high production costs, hybrids will struggle to remain competitive once subsidies for new energy vehicles (NEVs) are phased out. More importantly, hybrid vehicles’ emissions do not align with the fundamental goal of the NEV industry: achieving zero emissions. As such, hybrids are expected to be gradually phased out in favor of pure electric vehicles.

Leave a comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Related Articles

The Rare Earth Dilemma of America

For years, the U.S. economy and defense technology have been significantly reliant...

Photovoltaic panel cleaning tech 1

MIT Innovation: Waterless, Contactless Photovoltaic Panel Cleaning Technology

As global demand for renewable energy continues to rise, solar energy, as...

Trump

Trump Declares Energy Emergency as Asian Companies Suffer from Policy Shifts

After his inauguration on the 20th, U.S. President Trump signed a series...

Environmental energy 2025 1

Global Environmental Energy New Trends for 2025

2025 will be a crucial year for the worldwide environmental energy sector...