A report released by the Global Carbon Project (GCP) shows that global anthropogenic activities (including fossil fuels, land use, land use change and forestry) will reach a record high of 41.6 billion tons of CO2 in 2024, an increase of 1 billion tons compared to 2023. At the same time, the wildfires that swept the world in 2024 caused the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere to hit an annual high, which surprised scientists. Data shows that humans are further trapped in a dangerous world with frequent extreme weather.
Based on the carbon emission rate in 2024, the Global Carbon Budget Team estimates that there is a 50% chance that global warming will continue to exceed 1.5°C in about six years, continue to exceed 1.7 ℃ in 14 years, and exceed 2 ℃ in 27 years. However, there is a lot of uncertainty in this estimate, mainly due to the uncertainty of additional warming caused by non-CO2 factors such as methane, nitrous oxide, and aerosols.
Carbon Emissions by Industry
Globally, the total global fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions (including cement) in 2024 will increase by 0.8% from 2023 to 37.4 billion tons. Among them, carbon emissions from coal are expected to increase by 0.2%, oil by 0.9%, and natural gas by 2.4%, accounting for 41%, 32% and 21% of global fossil carbon dioxide emissions respectively.
From the perspective of country categories, China’s fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2024 accounted for about 32% of the total global fossil fuels, about 12 billion tons, an increase of 0.2% compared with 2023; India’s carbon emissions accounted for about 8%, or 3.2 billion tons, but the year-on-year growth rate was slightly higher, about 4.6%; carbon emissions in other regions were about 14.5 billion tons, with a growth rate of about 1.1%; carbon emissions from fossil fuels in the United States were about 4.9 billion tons, and carbon emissions from fossil fuels in the European Union exceeded 2.6 billion tons, compared with 2023, the United States and the European Union decreased by 0.6% and 3.8% respectively.
Emissions from land use change (such as deforestation) fell by 20% in the past decade, but rose in 2024. Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) in 2024 is about 110 million tons of carbon dioxide, while the global average annual carbon dioxide emissions from LULUCF from 2014 to 2023 is about 4.1±2.6 billion tons/year. Among them, the global land use change emission source from 2014 to 2023 mainly comes from deforestation, with an annual average of about 1.7 billion tons, which shows the great potential for reducing emissions after stopping deforestation. The annual average value of carbon sequestered through restoration/afforestation and forestry is about 1.2 GtC, which can offset 2/3 of deforestation emissions. Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are the countries with the highest LULUCF emissions, in order, and these three countries contribute more than half of global land use emissions.
In 2024, carbon emissions from international aviation and shipping will be about 1.2 billion tons, accounting for 7.8% of the global total, but still 3.5% lower than the pre-epidemic level in 2019. With the promotion and application of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), carbon emissions from the aviation industry will decline in the future, but the commercialization of SAF still needs to be improved.
In terms of carbon sink capacity, the growth rate of ocean carbon sink capacity was relatively fast from 2002 to 2016, but it has been stagnant since 2016. From 2014 to 2023, the annual average value of ocean carbon sink was about 290 million tons, accounting for 26% of the global carbon dioxide emissions; while the annual average value of land carbon sink was about 320±0.9 billion tons, accounting for about 30% of the global CO2 emissions. In 2024, El Niño and neutral conditions will occur, and the ocean carbon sink will increase in 2024, with a carbon sink of 300 million tons, while the land carbon sink will be about 320 million tons, which is also an increase compared with 2023.

Impact of Wildfires
After 2024, CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa in Hawaii increased by about 3.6 ppm to 427 ppm, far above the 280 ppm measured before the massive burning of fossil fuels triggered the climate crisis. Mauna Loa is the longest-running direct measurement of CO2, with data from the observation period, known as the Keeling curve, beginning in 1958.
The rise in CO2 concentrations is due to wildfires and the burning of coal, oil and gas. In 2024, wildfires caused billions of tons of CO2 emissions, especially in the Americas, where the climate crisis has exacerbated the severity and frequency of these fires. It is estimated that CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will reach 429.6 ppm in May 2025.
Clean Energy Leads The Change in Development Trajectory
At the 16th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity in Cali, Colombia, the United Nations Environment Programme released the 2024 Emissions Gap Report. The report shows that the technical emission reduction potential in 2030 is as high as 31 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, accounting for about 52% of emissions in 2023, and the emission reduction potential in 2035 is 41 billion tons, which will help achieve the 1.5-degree temperature control target.
Increasing the deployment of solar photovoltaic and wind power can achieve 27% of this total emission reduction potential in 2030 and 38% in 2035. Forest action can achieve about 20% of this emission reduction potential in 2030 and 2035. The report also proposes other effective emission reduction strategies, including improving energy efficiency, electrification of various sectors, and transitioning from fossil fuels to clean energy in buildings, transportation and industry. The report emphasizes that even realizing only part of this potential requires unprecedented international cooperation and a comprehensive approach by governments, focusing on measures that can maximize socio-economic and environmental synergies and minimize trade-offs.
The higher the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the more heat it absorbs, and global temperatures gradually rise. It is reported that 2024 is the hottest year since relevant records began in 1850, with many key climate indicators breaking records. The record high temperatures in 2024 triggered persistent heat waves, droughts, wildfires and storms, affecting the global society.