During the weeks-long political crisis and military mutiny in Madagascar, President Andry Rajoelina left the country on a French military aircraft on the evening of the 12th local time and temporarily sought refuge abroad. According to the latest reports from multiple international media outlets, his decision was made under the circumstances where some troops defected and the security situation at the presidential palace deteriorated rapidly, marking that the country’s regime is now in a state of deep uncertainty.
The capital was thrown into chaos, and military factions defected
According to local sources, before the incident, the situation in Antananarivo, the capital of Madagascar, deteriorated sharply, and some military factions announced their withdrawal from the control of the central government. In particular, the “CAPSAT Special Forces” under the Ministry of Defense publicly declared their refusal to carry out the president’s order and occupied the armory in the northern part of the capital. The military unit stated on social media, accusing the government of corruption and dereliction of duty, claiming that “the military must take over the country to restore order and public support.”
This force, which played a key role when Rajoelina came to power in the 2009 coup, has now once again become the fuse of the political turning point. An unnamed officer disclosed that a clear division has emerged within the military. Some officers demand the president’s resignation, while others advocate maintaining the constitutional framework through emergency negotiations.
Protests spread, and the crisis of government trust has expanded
Over the past month, public demonstrations have broken out in many places in Madagascar, protesting against the government’s incompetence in addressing energy shortages, rising food prices, and unemployment. The wave of protests was initiated by students and young workers and quickly spread across multiple provinces. As security forces forcibly cleared the area, the conflict caused at least a dozen casualties, further intensifying social tensions.
Power outages, soaring prices, and the spread of corruption – people’s patience has long been exhausted. A student from Capital University said, “This is not only an economic crisis, but also a complete collapse of the government’s credibility.”
International observers point out that the Rajoelina government has faced numerous challenges in infrastructure construction and fiscal management in recent years, with high public debt and inflation, while political differences have brought reforms to a standstill. Although the president announced last month that “the cabinet would be reorganized to restore trust”, the opposition called it a “political show” and demanded that elections be held early.
Rajoelina’s hasty departure was triggered by safety considerations
According to French media and diplomatic channels, the French Embassy in Antananarivo assisted in arranging the president’s emergency evacuation on the evening of the 12th. A French Air Force transport plane landed at Iwatou International Airport at night, taking Rajolina and his family out of the country. At present, it has not been confirmed by the outside world whether he has arrived in mainland France, but many media outlets say that he may temporarily stay in Reunion or the United Arab Emirates.
The presidential palace said in a brief statement that Rajolina “temporarily left the country due to security threats” and had not resigned from his position, stating that he “will continue to handle state affairs through diplomatic channels”. However, the opposition and some military figures consider this to be equivalent to a “de facto power vacuum” and call for the establishment of a transitional committee to keep the country running.
The military has taken over some of the government affairs and imposed a curfew in the capital
On the morning of the 13th, the military of Madagascar announced the “takeover of some key institutions”, including the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Interior. The interim military council led by Army Commander-in-Chief Demosthene Pikulas stated that its top priority is “to ensure national security and social stability” and emphasized that it will not immediately dissolve the parliament.
Armored vehicles have been deployed on the streets of the capital, curfews have been imposed on major roads, and banks and schools have been temporarily closed. Airports and radio stations are controlled by the military, and network communication is restricted. The public was asked to stay at home to prevent the violent incidents from escalating.
A UN official told Reuters in an interview that the current situation is “extremely fragile” and the UN and the African Union are trying to maintain communication with the military to prevent the situation from sliding further into a full-scale coup or civil war.
France and the international community are closely following the situation
As a former colonial power, France has long held political and economic influence in Madagascar. The French Foreign Ministry confirmed on the 13th that France did provide logistical support during the president’s “safe evacuation”, but emphasized that this move was “only out of humanitarian and security considerations” and did not imply interference in the regime change.
The European Union, the African Union, and the United Nations have all issued statements, calling on all parties in Madagascar to remain calm and resolve their differences through dialogue. In a statement, Musa Faki, the chairperson of the African Union Commission, pointed out: “The change of power must follow constitutional procedures, and any act of overturning the government by force should not be accepted.”
The US State Department also issued a warning, urging citizens in Madagascar to avoid going out and temporarily closing the Embassy in Antananarivo.
The uncertain political outlook has deepened public concerns
As of the evening of the 13th, the military has not yet announced a new leader. Analysts believe that Madagascar may enter a long transitional period. If the military fails to reach a compromise with civilian forces, the country may face a new round of political unrest.
This is a repeat of the 2009 crisis, only this time it is more complex and dangerous. A political science professor said, “The military is not unified within, the economy is on the verge of collapse, and external influences are intensifying – this storm will not subside soon.”
The public is generally worried that the country will fall into anarchy. A taxi driver told the local radio station, “We don’t care who becomes the president. We just hope there won’t be any more wars.”
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