Feb 4, 2026 – High-level China-US telephone talks on February 4 have sparked market speculation over a sharp rise in China’s soybean purchases from the US, with the latter side stating unilaterally that China is considering raising its US soybean imports in the current quarter to 20 million tonnes, up from the 12 million tonnes already completed. It also added that the volume could climb further to 25 million tonnes in the next quarter. The news has sent Chicago soybean futures surging more than 3 percent to a two-month high.
Pre-agreed Purchases Completed as Scheduled
In line with the consensus reached at the Busan Meeting in October 2025, China’s state-owned grain enterprises, China Grain Reserves Corporation and COFCO Group, finished the procurement of 12 million tonnes of US soybeans by the end of January 2026. Market price calculations show the cost of this batch of soybeans is nearly $100 million higher than that of Brazilian soybeans purchased in the same period.
The signal of increased purchases, released by the US two months ahead of the expected visit of its leader to China, is seen as a gesture to ease bilateral relations. Both China and the US emphasized publicly after the phone call the importance of maintaining sound bilateral ties, marking the first direct communication between the two countries’ leaders since November 2025.
Market Concerns Over US Supply and Price Gaps
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, a leading consulting firm, raised concerns over the US soybean supply capacity. He pointed out that the US may not have enough soybeans to meet the expected demand of other importing countries while exporting an additional 8 million tonnes to China. Suderman warned that such a move could drive up US soybean prices, pushing some US and international buyers to switch to Brazilian soybeans with more price advantages.
At present, the price gap between US and Brazilian soybeans has widened. Even if prices were to level out, Chinese private crushing plants show little willingness to buy US soybeans, as China imposes a 13 percent tariff on US soybeans, compared with just 3 percent on Brazilian ones. According to traders, Chinese private crushing plants have not purchased any US soybeans since September 2025, shifting their purchases entirely to the Brazilian and Argentine markets.
China’s Reserve Adjustments for Potential Imports
Since December 2025, China Grain Reserves Corporation has held four auctions, releasing about 2 million tonnes of imported soybeans from national reserves. Market insiders interpret this move as an effort to free up storage space for the potential arrival of US soybeans, and more reserve auctions are expected after the Spring Festival holiday.
Industry analysts noted that if China does increase US soybean imports by 8 million tonnes, it will face a significant rise in costs. Brazil is in the peak season of soybean exports, with its soybean prices much lower than those of the US. In addition, the crushing profit margins of China’s major processing centers have been negative since August 2025, adding further cost pressures to the industry.
Soybean Trade: A Symbol of China-US Relations
Soybean trade holds special symbolic significance in China-US relations. US farmers are an important political support group for Trump domestically, while China is the world’s largest soybean consumer. Affected by the recent China-US trade tensions, US soybean overseas sales have dropped to the lowest level in 14 years in 2025.
According to the latest news, the Chinese government has not officially confirmed the specific volume of additional US soybean purchases, nor has it immediately responded to requests for comments from foreign media on the possibility of such procurement. Market analysts believe that any new purchases will depend on a combination of factors, including China-US economic and trade relations, geopolitical developments and market prices.
Bonnie Glaser from the German Marshall Fund of the United States said both sides are sending signals of their hope to maintain the stability of China-US relations. Amid the two countries’ efforts to ease trade tensions, the final implementation of the rumored soybean purchases will serve as an important indicator to observe the trend of China-US economic and trade interactions.
