As the election date approaches, the race between U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has become increasingly intense. A recent poll released by NBC on the 14th shows that the two candidates are neck and neck, each securing 48% of the vote. NBC believes this poll reflects the uncertainty of the election.
The poll results show that both Harris and Trump have garnered the support of 48% of registered voters. Another 4% of respondents indicated that when faced with a choice between the two major party candidates, they remain undecided or are unwilling to vote for either.
Compared to a similar NBC poll conducted in September, the dynamics of the race have shifted. Last month, Harris led Trump by 5 percentage points, with 49% support to Trump’s 44%. In a broader poll that included third-party candidates, 47% of registered voters favored Trump, while 46% supported Harris, with 7% choosing other candidates or remaining undecided.
Republican pollster Bill McInturff commented that “as the campaign transitions from summer to fall, Harris’ momentum has stalled, and the race is now evenly matched.” Democratic pollster Horwitt noted, “Harris faces the challenge of bridging the gap in voter understanding of her… while Trump must prove that the chaos and personal behavior that troubled many during his first term will not hinder his ability to govern and represent America.”
The poll also reveals significant differences in support among various demographic groups. Harris holds a substantial lead among African American voters (84%), young voters aged 18 to 34 (57%), and white voters with college degrees (55%). Meanwhile, Trump leads among rural voters (75%), white voters (56%), and white voters without a college degree (65%). Additionally, women tend to favor Harris, while men lean toward Trump.
This tight race is reflected in other recent polls as well. A survey by ABC and Ipsos shows a similarly close contest, with Harris holding 50% support among likely voters, compared to Trump’s 48%.
As the campaign enters the final stretch, both Trump and Harris are ramping up their policy messaging on key issues of concern to voters. According to Reuters, at a rally in the battleground state of Arizona on the 13th, Trump promised to hire an additional 10,000 border patrol agents if re-elected. He pledged to secure this by demanding a 10% pay raise for agents and offering $10,000 in retention and signing bonuses from Congress.
Reuters reports that immigration remains a top issue for voters, with many considering Trump the most capable of addressing it. Statistics show that around 7 million immigrants were apprehended crossing the U.S.-Mexico border during President Joe Biden’s administration, a record number that has drawn criticism from Trump and other Republicans toward Harris and Biden.
In recent weeks, Trump has intensified his anti-immigration rhetoric. Last month, he labeled undocumented immigrants committing violent crimes in the U.S. as “monsters” and “cold-blooded killers,” recently calling for the death penalty for any immigrant who kills an American citizen. Harris, on the other hand, has outlined her plan to reform the country’s “broken immigration system” and accused Trump of “fanning the flames of fear and division.”
Meanwhile, Harris’ running mate, Democratic vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz, has been working to enhance his image and appeal to male voters. Over the weekend, Walz returned to Minnesota to kick off the “pheasant hunting season” and attended a high school football game. Media photos showed Walz in full hunting gear, wearing an orange baseball cap with a pheasant silhouette. However, The Washington Post noted that it remains unclear whether these efforts have resonated with target voters, while Trump’s campaign has been using the footage to mock Walz, suggesting his hunting trip was merely a photo opportunity.
In addition to the ongoing campaigns, other factors could influence the election. According to BBC and Fox News, on October 12, 49-year-old Las Vegas man Wim Miller was arrested near a checkpoint outside Trump’s rally in Coachella Valley, California. The arrest took place just half a mile (approximately 0.8 kilometers) from the rally site. Local police reported that Miller was illegally in possession of a rifle, a loaded handgun, and a large-capacity magazine.
Fox News quoted Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who said, “Miller had multiple passports under different names, was driving an unregistered vehicle with fake plates, and his guns were loaded. If you ask me, I’d say we may have prevented the third assassination attempt on Trump.”
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