On the evening of the 7th local time, security forces maintaining order in Paris were early deployed around Place de la République, where the central République Monument was covered with signs of recent protests. Following the results of the first round of the French National Assembly elections last week, where the far-right party National Rally temporarily took the lead, supporters of the left-wing coalition “New People’s Front” held a rally that turned into a protest, prompting many surrounding shops to reinforce with plywood in anticipation of possible riots on the day of the second-round elections. However, at 8 PM on the 7th, the anticipated protest turned into a celebration as the “New People’s Front” unexpectedly won the most seats in this election, with the previously favored National Rally only coming in third. Some young people climbed onto the sculptures at Place de la République, raising flags initially intended for protests, and people intermittently chanted slogans like “Everyone hates fascists” and “Young people hate the National Rally,” mixed with cheers and singing.
Nevertheless, the fact that no faction secured the absolute majority of 289 seats required to form a government, coupled with a lack of cooperation tradition, has plunged French politics into great uncertainty. According to the British “Financial Times,” Macron originally hoped that the early parliamentary elections would clarify French politics, but voters only expressed what they were against, not what they supported. France now faces months or even years of political turmoil and an unstable government, which is bad news for both France and its European partners.
“Stunning reversal of first round results”
Final data released by the French Ministry of the Interior on the 8th shows that in the second round of the French National Assembly elections, the left-wing coalition “New People’s Front” won the most seats, securing 182 out of 577 seats in the National Assembly. The ruling party Renaissance and its centrist alliance “Together” won 163 seats, while the far-right National Rally secured 143 seats.
Describing the “stunning reversal of first round results,” CNN reported on the 8th that at Paris’s Place de la République, people applauded, set off fireworks, hugged each other, and collectively breathed a sigh of relief: in their eyes, France had been pulled back from the brink. Reuters and other media outlets reported that voters dealt a significant blow to the nationalist and Eurosceptic National Rally, which was previously predicted to win a landslide victory in opinion polls. Some analysts believe that the main reason for the National Rally’s defeat was the formation of a “Republican Front” by the left-wing coalition and centrists after the National Rally secured 33% of the votes in the first round. They mobilized 217 candidates to withdraw to concentrate votes, ensuring that non-far-right candidates would win. National Rally leader Bardella denounced this cooperation on the 7th as a “shameful alliance,” claiming it would paralyze France.
According to CNN, the Élysée Palace stated in a declaration that President Macron will respect the election results and “respect the choice of the French people.” “As the guarantor of our institutions, the President will ensure that the independent and autonomous choice of the French people is respected,” the Élysée Palace said. “In accordance with the traditions of the Republic, he will wait for the formation of the new National Assembly before making necessary decisions.” Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the far-left “La France Insoumise,” one of the leaders of the French left-wing political forces, said that the result “brought relief to the vast majority of the French people.” “Our people have clearly rejected the worst-case scenario,” he said. “A wave of grand civic mobilization has swept through!”
Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez, U.S. Senator Sanders, and many other politicians from both sides of the Atlantic welcomed the results of the French parliamentary elections. Polish Prime Minister Tusk commented on social platform X on the 8th, saying: “Paris is filled with enthusiasm, Moscow is disappointed, Kyiv breathes a sigh of relief, and Warsaw is happy enough.” German Vice Chancellor Habeck expressed relief on the 8th for the victory of the French left-wing but also warned that France, Europe, and Franco-German relations currently face many challenges.
Facing the risk of political paralysis?
Multiple media reports indicate that the fragmentation of the left-wing, centrist, and far-right forces has put France at risk of long-term political paralysis. The Financial Times said that France seems to be returning to the Fourth Republic, a period of post-war political turmoil in France when the President had weaker powers and the Parliament held significant authority. Another article from the same newspaper pointed out that negotiations between the parties will now determine whether an absolute majority of seats can be gathered to form a coalition government. If this cannot be achieved, only a minority government that can survive a vote of no confidence can be formed. Another backup option is to establish a technocratic government led by a non-partisan Prime Minister until new elections are held next year.
As per tradition, after the results of the new parliamentary elections are announced, the Prime Minister of the ruling party, which has lost the majority of seats, needs to resign. French Prime Minister Attal submitted his resignation to Macron on the 8th, but the latter did not approve it. With the Paris Olympics approaching, Macron announced on the 8th that he would invite Attal to temporarily continue as Prime Minister to ensure national stability during this period, also thanking him for his recent efforts during the European Parliament and French National Assembly elections, according to Le Figaro.
The Economist analyzed on the 7th that under the French constitution, the President has the right to appoint the Prime Minister. However, according to sources from the French Presidential Office, Macron believes that the current election results do not clearly indicate “who can govern.” The article suggests that Macron’s biggest hope is to draw moderate leftists and Greens from Mélenchon’s left-wing camp to form an alliance with the centrists. However, unlike countries such as Germany and Italy, France lacks experience in reaching compromises to maintain a governing coalition. The three major factions in the new parliament dislike each other and distrust each other even more. Under this uncertainty, Macron is likely to ask the current Prime Minister to serve as caretaker Prime Minister during negotiations. “France seems to have been pulled back from the brink, but it is still sailing into uncharted waters.”
“National Rally’s Victory Only Delayed”?
Marine Le Pen, the former leader of the National Rally who failed to become the largest party in the parliament in this election, is reportedly considering running for President for the fourth time in 2027. She gave a speech on the evening of the 7th, praising the National Rally’s growth over the years. In her view, if it weren’t for the obstruction by the center-left coalition, the National Rally would have “an absolute majority.” She stated that the election results laid the foundation for “tomorrow’s victory.” “The tide is rising. This time it didn’t rise high enough, but the tide is still rising, so our victory is only delayed,” said Le Pen.
AFP reported that although the National Rally is still licking its wounds, the defeat on the evening of the 7th cannot change the fact that this far-right party won the most seats in its history. “How long can the establishment keep the far right out of power?” Politico quoted Paris II University political analyst Morel as saying that even if the National Rally did not govern, this was still a political upheaval, and Le Pen’s party was “the big winner of the election.” According to Reuters, Le Pen’s close ally, lawyer Pierre Voss, said that the “hung parliament” produced by this election would mean a paralyzed France, providing a new opportunity for the National Rally in 2027.
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