“We are ready,” declared Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old chairman of France’s far-right party, the National Rally, at a press conference in Paris on the 24th. Bardella presented his campaign platform, outlining the policy direction he would take if he became the Prime Minister of France. He stated that the National Rally is currently the only political force capable of fulfilling the will of the French people. The French National Assembly elections will be held on June 30th, and recent polls indicate that the far-right has garnered higher support rates than any other faction.
Radio France Internationale reported that the National Rally is now seemingly within arm’s reach of governing France, a development that has caused significant concern within the international community. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has openly expressed his hope that the French far-right does not win. “Every election is important, but some elections are globally significant. The upcoming election in France could be the most disruptive since World War II—not only for France but also for the EU, the Atlantic alliance, and the remaining vestiges of the postwar liberal world order,” stated a commentary article on the 25th in the European edition of the the American political news website Politico.
Macron’s “Political Gamble” Faces Grim Prospects
The Associated Press news reported that on the 24th, Bardella held a lengthy press conference in a marble-adorned venue in a luxurious district of Paris. Wearing a crisp gray suit and a black tie, Bardella appeared calm, smiling, and very personable. He outlined his policy positions, which include withdrawing from European electricity pricing rules, halting President Macron’s previously promoted unemployment insurance and pension reform laws, restricting immigration, reinstating the crime of illegal residence, abolishing birthright citizenship in France, and abandoning the EU’s ban on the sale of petrol cars starting in 2035. Bardella stated that if elected, he would provide clear solutions to the public’s concerns about quality of life, safety, and immigration.
After the ruling party in France suffered a defeat in the European Parliament elections on June 9th, President Macron unexpectedly announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and called for early elections to “clarify” public opinion. The French National Assembly has a total of 577 seats, and elections are conducted using a two-round majority voting system. In the first round of voting, a candidate can be directly elected if they receive more than half of the votes in their constituency and if their vote count exceeds 25% of the registered voters in the constituency. If no candidate meets these criteria, the top two candidates with the most votes will proceed to a second round of voting, where the candidate with the most votes will be elected. The first round of voting is expected to take place on June 30th, with the second round scheduled for July 7th.
At least based on current polling data, Macron’s “political gamble” does not appear promising. Radio France Internationale reported on the 25th that multiple polls indicate the left and far-right are maintaining their momentum, while Macron’s ruling coalition continues to decline. A poll released by Le Figaro on the 24th shows that 36% of respondents support the far-right coalition led by the National Rally, ahead of the left-wing New People’s Front at 29.5% and Macron’s ruling party coalition at 20.5%. In terms of parliamentary seats, the far-right is expected to gain 220-260 seats, making it the largest political group in the National Assembly. After the second round of elections on July 7th, if the National Rally and its allies secure an absolute majority in the National Assembly, Bardella is likely to become the next Prime Minister of France, ushering in an era of co-governance between Macron’s centrist administration and the far-right.
Three Major Camps Clash Head-On
“As voters prepare for the most polarized election in decades, France’s three major political camps clashed head-on in a crucial television debate on the 25th,” AFP reported. The three participants were Bardella, Prime Minister Attal from Macron’s government, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the ‘France Unbowed’ party. The report noted that some believe the debate is unlikely to change the balance among the three major groups. “What debate? People have already made their choices; it’s already set,” a senior member of Macron’s team told AFP.
Radio France Internationale reported that the National Rally, often accused of being adept at “fanning the flames and inciting discord,” was accused this past week of flip-flopping on several key policies. The party has always advocated for the immediate repeal of the 64-year retirement law, proposing retirement at 60 for everyone. However, sensing the possibility of coming to power, the party began to backtrack, with Bardella on the 24th attempting to respond to criticisms that his party only incites without any governing plans. He stated that French people who started working before the age of 20 and have 40 years of work experience could retire at 60.
The report also noted that the ruling alliance’s performance in the polls has shown no significant improvement over the past two weeks. President Macron has repeatedly used various opportunities to explain to voters that his decision to dissolve the parliament was unavoidable but responsible. However, he has apparently failed to convince voters or win the approval of his own camp. On the 24th, in a podcast, Macron warned that both far-right and left-wing governance could lead to “civil war.”
Macron stated that the National Rally’s campaign declarations and policies are based on “stigmatization or creating division.” “They categorize people based on religion or origin, which leads to division and civil war.” Regarding the left-wing ‘France Unbowed’ party, Macron said that the party advocates for a so-called “form of communitarianism,” which would also lead to civil war.
Both the far-right and left-wing responded to Macron’s statements. Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally, said Macron’s arguments were “weak” and showed that “he believes he has lost this election.” Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of ‘France Unbowed,’ criticized that it was Macron’s own policies that caused unrest, citing the riots in New Caledonia, a French overseas territory, as an example.
“France is on the Edge of a Cliff”
“France is on the edge of a cliff,” declared a Guardian editorial on the 24th, stating that Macron’s “reckless gamble” has proven to be a gift to Marine Le Pen and the radical right. Although the National Rally may not secure an absolute majority of seats, it seems within striking distance, which is remarkable in itself. In the 2017 election, the year Macron began his first presidential term, the National Rally won only eight seats. The article noted that the left is fragmented, the centrists lack public support, and the “Republican Front,” which has kept the far-right at bay in post-war France, is now on the brink of collapse.
A Politico article on the 25th emphasized that France’s leadership role in the EU, its seat on the UN Security Council, and its influence as a global power make this election nearly as significant as the U.S. presidential election in November. The implications extend far beyond France.
For more updates, please visit the latest official website.
Leave a comment