“If the U.S. Imposes Tariffs, Mexico Will Retaliate,” Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated during the latest press conference on the 27th. According to Reuters, this is her clearest statement yet, signaling that Mexico is preparing countermeasures against potential tariffs on Mexican goods by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
At the same event, Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard argued that such tariffs would not only violate trade agreements between Mexico, the U.S., and Canada but also be “shooting themselves in the foot.” He warned that imposing tariffs could cost 400,000 American jobs, raise consumer prices, slow economic growth, and severely impact the U.S. auto industry. On the evening of the 27th, Trump and Sheinbaum had a phone conversation. Trump later posted on his social media platform, Truth Social, claiming that Sheinbaum had agreed to curb migration through Mexico into the U.S., effectively closing the southern border. Sheinbaum quickly rebutted, asserting, “Mexico’s stance is not to close borders, but to build bridges between governments and people.” The differing narratives from the two leaders have drawn significant media attention.
“Shooting Themselves in the Foot”
Trump recently threatened to impose a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada on his first day in office, demanding both countries prevent illegal immigration and drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl, into the U.S. On the 26th, Sheinbaum dismissed these threats, stating that tariffs and threats would neither curb migration nor reduce U.S. drug consumption. She had already sent Trump a letter urging dialogue and cooperation. On the 27th, she reiterated, “If the U.S. imposes tariffs, Mexico will raise tariffs as well. This is a technical measure, and under such circumstances, Mexico would stand to benefit.”
Sheinbaum, who took office in October, is Mexico’s first female president. AFP noted that she called Trump’s tariff threats “unacceptable,” emphasizing that Mexico’s drug cartels primarily exist to meet U.S. demand. She also highlighted the ongoing issue of illegal firearms flowing into Mexico from the U.S., pointing out that 70% of the weapons confiscated from criminals in Mexico originated in the U.S. While Mexico neither produces these weapons nor consumes most synthetic drugs, the violence and casualties resulting from these problems are borne by Mexico.
Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard provided additional details during the press conference. He stated that a 25% tariff on Mexican goods would particularly hurt American companies operating in Mexico, especially automakers like General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford. These companies send parts from the U.S. to Mexico for assembly and then export finished vehicles back to the U.S. Tariffs would drastically increase costs. For example, in the U.S. pickup truck market, tariffs could add $3,000 to the cost of a new truck. Reuters noted that nearly 90% of pickup trucks sold in the U.S. are manufactured in Mexico, and these vehicles are especially popular in rural areas that form Trump’s voter base. Analysts at Barclays Bank estimated that the proposed 25% tariffs could effectively eliminate the profits of major U.S. automakers, including GM, Stellantis, and Ford.
Ebrard also cited a study based on data from American automakers operating in Mexico, estimating that the proposed tariffs could result in 400,000 lost U.S. jobs. “The main impact will be on U.S. consumers and businesses,” he said, “which is why we say this is like shooting themselves in the foot.” According to The Washington Post, while Mexico’s economy heavily depends on trade with the U.S., key U.S. industries like automotive, machinery, and food also rely on imports from Mexico.
Mexican President Rebuts Trump’s Claims
During their phone call on the 27th, Trump and Sheinbaum discussed migration issues. The New York Times reported that the conversation began positively, with both sides expressing satisfaction. Trump described the call as “great and productive,” while Sheinbaum called it “excellent.” However, their accounts soon diverged.
“Trump was quick to declare victory,” reported the Associated Press. On her social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Sheinbaum stated that she had discussed Mexico’s migration strategies with Trump, emphasizing that migrant caravans no longer reach the northern border because they are addressed within Mexico. However, Trump claimed on Truth Social that Sheinbaum had agreed to stop migration through Mexico into the U.S., effectively closing the southern border, and discussed ways to curb drug flows into the U.S.
In response, Sheinbaum issued a second statement: “We reiterate that Mexico’s position is not to close borders but to build bridges between governments and people.” According to The Washington Post, Sheinbaum merely noted that migrant caravans no longer reach the U.S. border, and she has no intention of altering Mexico’s migration policies. While such caravans previously traveled northward through Mexico, facing dangers like kidnapping, they are now often broken up by Mexican authorities within days. For at least six years, no large caravan has reached the U.S. border. Under U.S. pressure, Mexico has increasingly detained migrants across its territory and deported them to the country’s southern region. Experts say this strategy aims to exhaust migrants until they abandon their journey. As a result, migration to the U.S. has significantly decreased, with border crossings down 40% from last December’s record high.
“If It’s a Trade War They Want, So Be It”
CNN calculated that a U.S.-Mexico trade war would significantly raise Americans’ daily expenses. Official U.S. data from 2022 shows that the U.S. imported $44.1 billion worth of agricultural products from Mexico, accounting for one-fifth of its total consumption. For example, 90% of avocados consumed in the U.S. are imported from Mexico. If Trump imposes tariffs, prices for products like avocados would skyrocket.
An article on MSNBC commented that Sheinbaum’s stance indicates Mexico won’t easily back down. “If Trump wants a trade war, so be it,” the article stated, adding that both sides would bear the economic consequences. The Associated Press noted that Trump seemed convinced his tariff threats were effective, as they had already stirred financial markets and elicited responses. Even if the proposed tariffs are never implemented, Trump could portray the mere threat as a success, touting tariffs as a powerful policy tool to his supporters.
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