Is War Between Iran and Israel Imminent? Many foreign media outlets and observers raised this question on the 12th. NBC and CBS reported on the 11th that U.S. officials had been informed that Israel was ready to launch military operations against Iran, and the U.S. expected Iran might retaliate against U.S. military bases in Iraq.
The report also stated that this was one of the reasons the U.S. State Department advised non-essential personnel and their families to leave the U.S. Embassy in Iraq on the 11th. On the same day, the Pentagon announced that Defense Secretary Esper had approved the voluntary evacuation of U.S. military families stationed in the Middle East. U.S. President Trump also stated on the 11th that he would arrange for the evacuation of non-essential personnel from the region.
NBC, citing five anonymous sources, reported that Israel is considering launching an attack on Iran in the coming days, and this operation would not receive U.S. support, as the U.S. still hopes for negotiations. The sources stated that Israel is considering targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, and they are unaware of any plans by the U.S. to assist Israel in striking Iran. CBS also reported similar information, citing sources.
Both U.S. media outlets mentioned that due to concerns about potential Iranian retaliation against Americans in Iraq, the U.S. State Department and Pentagon approved the evacuation of some U.S. officials and their families from the region on the 11th. “We are assessing whether it is appropriate to deploy embassy personnel,” a U.S. State Department official told the Washington Post. “Based on our latest analysis, we have decided to reduce the size of our mission in Iraq.” Meanwhile, a U.S. Department of Defense official stated that Defense Secretary Esper had authorized military families to “voluntarily leave” military bases across the Middle East. Additionally, according to AFP, on the 12th, the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem announced restrictions on the movements of its staff and their families.
When asked about the decision to withdraw U.S. personnel from the region, Trump stated on the 11th, “Because it could be a dangerous place, we’ll see what happens.” When asked how to ease tensions with Iran, Trump added, “It’s simple, they can’t have nuclear weapons.” Michael Knights, a security expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, believes that the staff evacuation is aimed at signaling to Iran that the U.S. might not prevent Israel from attacking Iran.
U.S. media reported that during a phone call on the 9th with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Trump urged him to stop discussing attacks on Iran, while Netanyahu told Trump that Iran was just stalling and not serious about negotiations. The report stated that talks had stalled due to Iran’s insistence on maintaining low-level uranium enrichment activities. Trump said, “They’ve got some problems over there, but my confidence in reaching an agreement has dropped significantly.” Trump also repeatedly threatened that if negotiations failed, the U.S. would strike Iran.
Some foreign media analysts have suggested that the U.S. actions have heightened tensions in the Middle East and fueled concerns that “war is imminent.” Recently, tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated, and negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over the nuclear issue have made no progress since April. Israel has repeatedly called for using force to address Iran’s nuclear issue. However, from Iran’s perspective, these are all part of a “psychological warfare” game played by the U.S. and Israel.
Iran’s Mehr News Agency reported that some Western media outlets are launching a “psychological warfare offensive,” implying that if Iran does not accept the U.S. conditions during negotiations, an Israeli military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities will be imminent. An anonymous Iranian official stated that under the influence of Israeli lobbying groups, the U.S. is trying to create tension in the region by evacuating military bases and diplomatic personnel, aiming to force Iran to accept some of the U.S. demands in the negotiations. The official emphasized that there are no concrete signs suggesting that a direct military conflict between Iran and the U.S. is likely in the region.
Another senior Iranian official told Reuters on the 11th that a “friendly” country in the Middle East had alerted Tehran, warning that Israel might launch a military strike. The official stated that the purpose of Israel’s actions is “to force Tehran to change its nuclear stance,” and vowed that Iran would maintain a certain level of uranium enrichment activity. Iran’s Defense Minister, Amir Hatami, also said that he hoped the Iran-U.S. talks would succeed, but if negotiations failed and a military conflict occurred, Iran would target U.S. military bases in the Middle East.
The Times of Israel reported that in October 2024, Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel. Later that month, Israel’s retaliatory strikes severely damaged Iran’s air defense systems. Analysts speculate that Israel would prefer to act before Iran rebuilds its air defense systems.
Despite the escalating tensions, Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr confirmed on the 11th that Oman will host the sixth round of talks between the U.S. and Iran on the 15th. A U.S. official stated that the U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East, Tim Lenderking, is scheduled to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Oman on the 15th. Lenderking stated on the 11th that he had spoken with Netanyahu earlier that day, insisting that “Iran must never be allowed to enrich uranium or develop any nuclear capability.” Lenderking added, “A nuclear-armed Iran poses an existential threat to Israel.”
On the 12th, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) passed a resolution stating that Iran had violated its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), marking the first such resolution in 20 years. Israel immediately urged the international community to “respond decisively” to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran issued a joint statement on the 12th condemning the resolution, calling it “politically motivated and lacking technical and legal basis.” The head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization has ordered the construction of new uranium enrichment facilities at secure locations. Additionally, Iranian media reported that the first batch of documents obtained from Israel showed that IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi had maintained close cooperation and coordination with Israel, fully executing its instructions.
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