SEMI’s latest quarterly Global Fab Forecast report shows record semiconductor wafer capacity, including 42 new fab openings this year. growth in 2024 will be driven by increases in leading-edge logic and foundry capacity, applications such as generative AI and high-performance computing (HPC), and a revival of end-of-chip demand. Capacity expansion slows in 2023 due to weak demand in the semiconductor market and resulting inventory adjustments.
“Recovering global market demand and strengthening government incentives are driving a surge in fab investment in major chip manufacturing regions, with global capacity expected to grow by 6.4 percent in 2024,” said Ajit Manocha, SEMI‘s president and chief executive officer. “The heightened global focus on the strategic importance of semiconductor manufacturing to national and economic security is a key catalyst for these trends.”
The World Fab Forecast report covers the period from 2022 to 2024, when the global semiconductor industry plans to bring 82 new fabs into production, with 11 projects in 2023 and 42 in 2024, with wafer sizes ranging from 300mm to 100mm. South Korea’s chip capacity is ranked third, with a capacity of 4.9 million wafers per month in 2023 and 5.1 million wafers per month in 2024, which will grow by 5.4% as one fab comes online. Japan is expected to rank fourth with 4.6 million wafers/month in 2023 and 4.7 million wafers/month in 2024, a 2% increase with four fabs coming online in 2024.
Global fab forecasts show that the Americas will see six new fabs by 2024, with chip capacity growing 6% year-over-year to 3.1 million wafers per month. Europe and the Middle East are expected to increase capacity by 3.6% to 2.7 million wafers per month in 2024, as four new fabs come online in the region. Southeast Asia is expected to see a 4% increase in capacity to 10,000 wafers per month by 2024 with the startup of four new fab projects. Foundry suppliers are expected to be the largest buyers of semiconductor equipment, with capacity increasing to 9.3 million wafers per month in 2023 and reaching a record 10.2 million wafers per month in 2024.
Capacity expansion in the memory segment slows in 2023 due to weak demand for consumer electronics such as PCs and smartphones. DRAM wafer capacity is expected to increase by 2% to 3.8 million wafers/month in 2023 and by 5% to 4.0 million wafers/month in 2024. 3D NAND installed capacity is expected to remain at 3.6 million wafers/month in 2023 and grow by 3D NAND installed capacity is expected to remain at 3.6 million wafers in 2023 and grow by 2% this year to 3.7 million wafers per month.
In discrete and analog, vehicle electrification remains a key driver of capacity expansion. Discrete wafer capacity is expected to grow 10 percent to 4.1 million wafers/month in 2023 and 7 percent to 4.4 million wafers/month in 2024, while analog capacity is expected to grow 11 percent to 2.1 million wafers/month in 2023 and 10 percent to 2.4 million wafers/month in 2024. The most recent update to SEMI’s World Foundry Forecasts lists 1,500 facilities and production lines worldwide, including 177 facilities and production lines. facilities and production lines worldwide, including 177 volume production facilities and lines expected to begin operations in 2023 or later.
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