“The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan has entered a ‘Warring States era’ of factions.” This is how Japanese media has described the upcoming election for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president.
So far, multiple candidates have officially announced their candidacies for the LDP presidency. This election has broken free from traditional factional constraints, creating a complex situation. Public opinion suggests that this will be a “battle royale.”
The Presidential Election: The Race for the Prime Minister’s Seat
The LDP presidential election is scheduled to officially announce candidacies on September 12, with voting to be held on the 27th.
Since the LDP holds the majority of seats in the Japanese parliament, this means that whoever wins the presidency will likely become Japan’s next Prime Minister.
Japanese media reported that this will be the first LDP presidential election held after the party was hit by a “black money” scandal. The 15-day campaign period, the longest in history, aims to regain public trust by extending the campaign duration.
According to the voting rules, in the first round of voting, LDP members from across Japan and LDP members of the parliament will each have an equal share of votes. A candidate must secure more than half of the votes to win. If no one achieves this, the top two candidates will enter a second round of voting, where LDP parliamentarians and regional party representatives will decide the outcome.
Many believe that due to the large number of candidates this time, no one is likely to secure a majority in the first round, making a second round of voting likely.
Currently, several prominent figures, including Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, Digital Minister Taro Kono, Minister for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, former Economic Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi, and former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, have officially declared their candidacies for the election.
Several Japanese media outlets have described this LDP presidential election as facing an unprecedented “chaotic battle.”
Front-runners: A Three-Way Contest
A recent poll conducted by NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation) revealed that Shigeru Ishiba, Shinjiro Koizumi, and Sanae Takaichi are the top three candidates in terms of public support for the next LDP president.
Multiple Japanese polls also show that Shigeru Ishiba, Shinjiro Koizumi, and Sanae Takaichi are seen as the most likely contenders for the new presidency.
Shigeru Ishiba, 67, has previously held positions such as Japan’s Defense Minister and LDP Secretary-General. This is Ishiba’s fifth attempt to run for LDP president, which he calls the final battle of his political career.
Although Ishiba is popular in polls, some believe his weak base within the party may make it difficult for him to secure enough parliamentary votes.
Shinjiro Koizumi, 43, has been regarded as a “rising star” in Japanese politics since he entered the political arena. He comes from a political dynasty, with his father, Junichiro Koizumi, being a former Japanese Prime Minister.
Some Japanese media suggest that Koizumi’s strong candidacy is mainly due to his father’s influence.
Former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga recently gave a public speech in support of Koizumi, though Japan’s Kyodo News noted concerns that a lack of significant experience and Suga’s backing might lead to a government dominated by behind-the-scenes influences.
Sanae Takaichi, 63, is the seventh official candidate and the first female to run for LDP president, aiming to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister.
This is Takaichi’s second time running for the party leadership, having lost to the current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in 2021.
In this election, Takaichi shares a voter base with Takayuki Kobayashi, with both attracting conservative voters. How Takaichi expands her support base will be a key challenge for her.
However, despite the relative popularity of these three candidates in the polls, their support rates remain below 30%, meaning none of them have a guaranteed advantage, and the outcome remains uncertain.
The Future: Unavoidable Challenges
Many analysts believe that the eventual winner of this election will face a series of complex political and economic challenges.
According to Japan’s Tokyo Shimbun, political journalist Tadayuki Nogami stated that Japanese parliamentarians have not worked to regain public trust. No matter who becomes the LDP president, it will only drive the public further away from the party.
Noriyuki Yamazaki, a professor of political theory at Chuo University, expressed doubts about the LDP system. He argued that LDP presidential candidates, in their efforts to become president, are forced to rely on the party, limiting their personal policy stances and ultimately aligning them with the LDP’s broader goals. Whoever becomes party president will find it difficult to bring about innovation, reflecting the party’s lack of self-cleansing capability.
While the large number of candidates may appear to show the LDP’s desire for renewal, the key issue seems to lie in whether the party can distance itself from the “black money” scandal and effectively address the systemic issues that have led to such persistent problems.
Loss of public trust, daunting economic challenges, and the increasingly complex global landscape—whoever wins the LDP presidential race, and potentially becomes Japan’s next Prime Minister, will face a difficult road ahead.
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