In the context of the accelerating transformation of the world over the past century, the United States, as the world’s sole superpower, is undergoing profound changes: economic imbalance is becoming more severe, political polarization is becoming more evident, and social divisions are intensifying. In 2024, Republican Trump won all the swing states by an overwhelming margin, securing the presidential election—this outcome is a concentrated reflection of various changes in the U.S. As an article in Foreign Affairs magazine put it, “The result of the 2024 U.S. election confirms that the situation in 2016 (Trump’s presidential election) was not an anomaly.” As the new U.S. government is about to take office, its policy shifts and adjustments, both domestic and foreign, may bring greater shocks to the world and itself.
Difficult Living Conditions
“My wallet decides who I vote for.” This is a common sentiment heard in interviews across the U.S. before the election. Public opinion in the U.S. generally believes that public dissatisfaction with the economy was one of the key reasons why current Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Harris lost to Trump.
In recent years, the Biden administration has frequently released “impressive” data to promote the “success” of its economic policies. On December 4, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released an economic outlook report, predicting that the U.S. economy would grow by 2.8% in 2024. This growth rate is relatively high among developed countries, but the U.S. public is not convinced, as most feel that the cost of living is rising and pressure is increasing. A Gallup poll released on December 23 showed that only 19% of Americans believe the country is heading in the right direction, with issues such as the economy and inflation being the top concerns.
The rising cost of living is the main reason for the decline in the quality of life for many Americans. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that grocery prices in the U.S. have risen by 24.6% compared to four years ago. Many Americans complain on social media that prices for items like milk and eggs have more than doubled. They compare their shopping receipts from four years ago, showing that many items have increased by over 50%, with some soaring by over 300%.
A survey report titled “Real Cost of Living in New York City” showed that over the past four years, basic household living expenses in the U.S. have increased by 131%, while the median household income has only risen by 71%. In New York, about half of adults cannot cover basic living expenses with their income.
For the incoming U.S. government, addressing these issues will not be easy, as they involve deep-seated problems such as social stratification, polarization, racial discrimination, and government inefficiency. The new administration plans to set up a Department of Government Efficiency to cut federal spending, but it remains unclear what kind of results this will produce. If the U.S. provokes large-scale trade disputes again, the ultimate sufferers will still be the ordinary citizens.
Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz predicts that if the new U.S. government significantly raises tariffs, everything Americans, especially middle- and low-income families, need will become more expensive, while tax cuts for the rich will further exacerbate the wealth gap.
Intensified Polarization
“We often see each other as enemies, not neighbors or fellow citizens. So I hope… we can take some time to calm down and reflect.” U.S. President Biden said in his 2024 Christmas video address. Merriam-Webster, the U.S. publishing company, named the word “polarization” as the 2024 word of the year based on its online dictionary usage data.
During the 2024 U.S. election, Trump was convicted of a criminal offense and survived an assassination attempt; after pressure within his party, Biden withdrew from the race, and Harris became the Democratic presidential candidate. Throughout the election campaign, both major camps attacked each other, accusing the other of “threatening American democracy.” After the release of the film American Civil War in the U.S., Rolling Stone magazine commented, “You might accidentally mistake the movie’s future setting for the present.” The Atlantic wrote, “In this politically polarized era, the film strikes an unsettling resonance.”
Biden’s administration clashed with the Republican-led Texas state government over immigration issues, making headlines across U.S. media. Republican-led states such as Texas and Florida used buses or planes to transport illegal immigrants to Democratic-led cities as a “weapon” against the Democrats. According to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, about 10 million “illegal immigrants” entered the U.S. during Biden’s presidency, setting a new record. Other data shows that the current number of “illegal immigrants” in the U.S. is estimated to be between 11 million and 15 million.
Trump has declared that if he returns to office, he will take all measures to deport “illegal immigrants,” including using the military and abolishing birthright citizenship. However, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, about half of the workers on U.S. farms are undocumented immigrants. The construction, remodeling, food processing, and landscaping industries also heavily rely on undocumented labor. Forcefully deporting all “illegal immigrants” would undoubtedly meet strong resistance in these sectors. Furthermore, mass deportations would also be affected by enforcement costs and other factors.
The latest issue of transgender rights also poses a challenge for the incoming U.S. government. Trump recently stated that he would sign an executive order to “oust transgender people from the military, elementary, middle, and high schools” and “keep men out of women’s sports,” making it official U.S. policy to recognize only two genders: male and female. This would completely overturn Biden’s approach of treating transgender rights as politically correct, and the debate around this issue will further divide American society.
Today’s America is riddled with divisions, with endless disputes across different classes, races, and political parties. After this election, the conflicts are even more apparent.
“America First”
In 2024, the U.S. continued to provide military aid to Israel and Ukraine, allowing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Ukraine crisis to escalate. It repeatedly exercised its veto power in the UN Security Council over Gaza ceasefire resolutions, bearing inescapable responsibility for the humanitarian disaster caused by the prolonged conflicts. Meanwhile, U.S. military-industrial companies are making huge profits from the wars. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken recently claimed that since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict, the U.S. has provided about $100 billion in various forms of aid to Ukraine, most of which has been spent on U.S. defense industries, “resulting in good employment in the U.S.”
In January 2025, the new U.S. government will take office, and its domestic and foreign policies may bring even greater shocks to the world.
Recently, Trump has made a series of shocking statements, claiming that Canada could become the “51st state” of the U.S., threatening to “reclaim” the Panama Canal, and asserting that gaining control over Greenland is “absolutely necessary.” The New York Times wrote that “Trump’s statements, and the not-so-hidden threats behind them, again remind people that his ‘America First’ ideology is not an isolationist creed,” evoking “the expansionism or colonialism of former U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt.”
Looking ahead to U.S. foreign policy in 2025, many observers believe that the U.S. may once again announce its withdrawal from some key international organizations and treaties, with even the U.S.-led NATO possibly on the “exit list.” Time magazine recently interviewed several prominent international affairs experts, all of whom said that even if the U.S. does not withdraw from NATO, Trump would push for the organization to be “reformed” according to his will. The Financial Times reported that Trump’s foreign policy advisors have requested NATO member states to increase military spending to 5% of their GDP. Currently, European defense orders are heavily flowing to the U.S.
For a long time, Trump has viewed tariffs as a universal diplomatic tool. He recently publicly stated that the European Union must purchase U.S. oil and gas as “compensation” for the U.S. trade surplus, “otherwise, tariffs are coming.” He also threatened neighboring North American countries, saying that on his first day in office, he would impose a 25% tariff on all products imported from Mexico and Canada. Analysts believe that if the U.S. imposes large-scale tariffs on trade partners despite widespread opposition, it will trigger a trade war and harm the global economy.
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