Against the backdrop of consecutive extreme weather events and pest infestations in major cocoa-producing regions worldwide, cocoa raw material prices have continued to rise, driving up the cost of chocolate production. Recently, several well-known U.S. chocolate brands, including Hershey, Mars, and Lindt, have announced price hikes, sparking widespread attention from consumers and the industry. This round of price increases not only highlights the vulnerability of the global agricultural supply chain but also further exacerbates food inflation pressures in developed countries.
According to reports from the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) and Reuters, among other international media outlets, cocoa prices have continuously broken historical records from 2023 to 2025. New York cocoa futures prices surpassed $10,000 per ton in early 2025, setting a new record since 1979. Cocoa prices have quadrupled in less than 18 months, directly impacting the chocolate supply chain reliant on cocoa bean production.
The core reason for this round of price surges lies in the severe contraction of supply. Ivory Coast and Ghana in West Africa are the two major cocoa-producing countries globally, accounting for approximately 60% of global production. However, these regions have been frequently affected by abnormally high temperatures and reduced precipitation caused by the El Niño phenomenon in recent years. Disrupted planting seasons, premature fruit drop, and reduced cocoa tree yields have become the norm, with some regions seeing a year-on-year decline in cocoa production exceeding 30%. Additionally, fungal diseases such as cocoa black pod disease have continued to ravage crops, exacerbating the extent of the production decline. A cocoa farmer from Abidjan stated, “We used to harvest two tons annually, but this year we only harvested less than 800 kilograms.”
The supply-demand imbalance has further impacted the end market. In its latest financial report, Hershey Company noted that due to rising raw material costs, the company was forced to increase prices by 8%-12% for most of its chocolate products to maintain profit levels. Mars Inc. announced it would adjust the suggested retail prices of its Snickers and M&M’s products across North America. Consumer reactions have been mixed, with some expressing concerns about increased holiday spending costs, while others complain that what was once an “affordable treat” is now becoming a luxury item.
The impact is not limited to the retail market; the food service and baking industries are also affected. A New York pastry chef who runs an independent dessert shop admitted, “The price of dark chocolate I purchase monthly has increased by nearly 50% compared to last year, forcing me to adjust part of the menu.” In Europe, chocolate manufacturers in multiple countries are also facing pressure. The CEO of Lindt stated, We are striving to control costs, but the shortage of high-quality cocoa raw materials leaves us no choice but to moderately raise prices.”
The rise in chocolate product prices has drawn more attention to structural issues in global agriculture. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted in a report that the damage caused by extreme weather to tropical crops is long-term, and as a crop highly dependent on specific climate conditions, cocoa faces significantly higher risks than commodities like corn and wheat. The IMF urged countries to increase investment in climate resilience and sustainable agricultural development, particularly by providing more financial, technical, and pest management support to cocoa-producing regions.
On the consumer side, experts have suggested that consumers adjust their expectations and embrace the trend toward “moderate, high-quality” chocolate consumption. Meanwhile, some manufacturers are exploring alternative solutions, such as reducing cocoa content in products, developing new chocolate flavors based on legumes or nuts, or lowering intermediate costs through fair trade and direct procurement.
However, in the short term, the impact of cocoa supply shortages will persist. It is projected that the cocoa market will not achieve full recovery by the end of 2025. Additionally, factors such as rising labor costs and fluctuating transportation prices may keep global chocolate prices at elevated levels. An industry analyst noted: “We are entering a new normal of high costs and low elasticity, and chocolate may increasingly fall into the category of ‘affordable luxury goods.’”
In this context, consumers, businesses, and policymakers must all adapt. The fluctuations in cocoa prices are not merely an economic story behind a piece of chocolate; they also reflect the global challenges of agricultural sustainability, the impacts of climate change, and the transformation of consumption patterns.
Leave a comment