Friday , 23 February 2024

USDA Oil Crop Outlook Report

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Oil crop

The 2023/24 global soybean production forecast was raised this month to 399 million tons, 100,000 tons higher than last month’s estimate, as production increases in Argentina, the United States, Paraguay, Russia, China, and Bolivia slightly outpaced declines in Brazil. The forecast for world soybean trade in 2023/24 was raised to 170.9 million tonnes due to higher exports from Paraguay and Russia. The global soybean crush forecast for this month is virtually unchanged, as crush increases in Argentina, India, Egypt, and Thailand offset declines in Brazil. Global soybean ending stocks are expected to be 114.6 million tonnes, 400,000 tonnes higher than last month’s estimate and 12.7 million tonnes higher than a year ago.

Soybean Production Forecast was Raised

The production report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) shows that the 2023/24 U.S. soybean production is expected to be raised by 35.2 million pu due to higher yield per unit. U.S. soybean yields were revised higher to 50.6 bushel per acre, 0.7 bushel higher than the previous month, mainly due to higher yields in Illinois, Missouri, and North Dakota. The U.S. soybean harvest was reduced by 400,000 acres from last month’s estimate, mainly due to lower acreage in Kansas. As the 2023/24 soybean supply is revised upwards, while export and crush forecasts remain unchanged, ending soybean stocks are raised this month by 35 million pounds to 280 million Pu. The 2023/24 U.S. annual farm price for soybeans was lowered to $12.75 per acre, down from last month’s forecast of $12.90 per acre.

NASS’s grain inventory report showed U.S. soybean stocks at 3 billion bushels as of Dec. 1, with 1.5 billion bushels, or 48 percent, on farms, down from 49 percent a year ago. The grain inventory report showed that soybean consumption from September to November was 1.4 billion Pu, down 6 percent from the same period last year. From September to November 2023, US soybean exports were 713 million pu, down 88.5 million pu year-on-year, and China’s share reached 67%, down 1% from a year ago. Despite the increase in supply, the 2023/24 US soybean export forecast remains unchanged at 1.76 billion tonnes.

From September to November 2023, U.S. soybean crushers reached a record 576.2 million bushels, 47.9 million bushels higher than the previous quarter (June to August), and 22.4 million bushels higher than the same period in 2022. The US soybean crush in November was 2000.1 million busloads, a record 6.67 million busloads per day, up 2.7% from the previous month. U.S. soybean crush for 2023/24 is estimated at 2.3 billion buttons, unchanged from last month’s forecast as soybean meal (3,037, 20.00, 0.66%) demand forecast was left unchanged for the month. Argentine soybean meal exports hit a record low in recent months, while U.S. soybean meal export demand is strong, supporting soybean crush growth. U.S. soybean meal exports in November were 1.47 million short tons, a record high for the same period. Total soybean meal exports in October and November were up nearly 30 percent from a year earlier. Despite strong exports early in the year, U.S. soybean meal exports will face more competition from Argentina in the April-September 2024 period, so the 2023/24 U.S. soybean meal export estimate was left unchanged this month at 15.3 million short tons. The average spot price for soybean meal in central Illinois fell to $440.60 per short ton in December, down 5% month-on-month and 5% year-over-year. This month also lowered the 2023/24 U.S. soybean meal annual average price to $380 per short ton.

This month lowered its 2023/24 average soy oil price forecast to $0.54 per pound. Soyoil prices in central Illinois in early January 2024 averaged $0.49 per pound, down more than 5% from the previous month. U.S. soybean oil prices have been higher than world prices for the past two years, leading to a decline in U.S. soybean oil exports and an increase in imports. Due to the sluggish pace of export sales, the U.S. soybean oil export estimate was lowered this month to 300 million pounds, 50 million pounds lower than last month. Soybean oil imports were revised up to 450 million pounds, 50 million pounds above last month’s estimate. U.S. soybean oil imports from October to November were 82 million pounds, up 48 percent from a year earlier. The increase in U.S. soybean oil supply was offset by an increase in domestic soybean oil demand. The forecast for domestic soybean oil use was raised to 27.2 billion pounds, up 100 million pounds from last month. Soybean oil used for biofuel production was revised up to 13 billion pounds, 200 million pounds more than expected last month. The use of soybean oil for food, feed, and other industries was revised down by 100 million pounds, which was offset by the higher use of canola oil.

Details can be found in the following documents:

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