The latest industry report indicates that Ukraine’s 2025 wheat and corn production forecasts have been revised upward, primarily benefiting from favorable weather conditions in certain growing regions. This development offers a glimmer of hope for alleviating supply pressures in the global grain market.
Output Forecasts Updated
Recent forecasts from both Ukrainian authorities and international institutions show a consistent positive trend. According to an October 2025 report from the Moscow-based consultancy SovEcon, Ukraine’s wheat production is now projected to reach 22.9 million tons, an upward revision of 1.5 million tons from previous estimates, while corn production is expected to hit 31.8 million tons, up by 900,000 tons. This adjustment is mainly attributed to cool and moist favorable conditions in central and northern Ukraine, which have partially offset the negative impact of high temperatures and drought in the southern regions. These latest figures align with the optimistic expectations voiced by Ukrainian authorities in August, when the Ministry of Economy revised its corn production forecast upward from 26.5 million tons to 28 million tons, reflecting confidence in crop potential.
Official channels have also released optimistic projections. In August, Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy raised the forecast for total annual grain production from 54 million tons to 56 million tons, with the core driver being corn output exceeding expectations at 28 million tons, while the wheat forecast was temporarily maintained at 21 million tons. The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) provided more specific estimates, projecting corn production to reach 29.26 million tons and wheat 22.5 million tons, with total grain and oilseed production expected to surpass 83.1 million tons.
Climate Gaps Drive Farm Adjustments
Ukraine’s agricultural sector is navigating significant regional climate disparities. While southern regions endure high temperatures and insufficient soil moisture, central and northern areas benefit from timely precipitation and moderate temperatures, supporting crop growth. In response, the Ukrainian government plans to expand winter wheat planting for the 2026 harvest to at least 5.2 million hectares—9% higher than previous projections. This strategic adjustment aims to boost export capacity and strengthen national food security amid variable growing conditions.
Global Supply Outlook Improves Marginally
As a major corn exporter, Ukraine’s production growth will directly contribute to easing global supply. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has included Ukraine among the major corn-producing countries expected to increase output in the 2025/26 season, projecting global corn production to rise 5.1% year-on-year to 1.289 billion tons. For Ukraine itself, the yield increase will bolster its export competitiveness. UGA forecasts Ukraine’s grain and oilseed exports for 2025/26 to reach 50 million tons, an increase of 3.3 million tons from the previous year. Corn exports are projected at 24 million tons, with wheat at 16.5 million tons. However, EU restrictions on Ukrainian wheat imports may still impact export flows, necessitating market-driven reallocations.
Currently, Ukraine’s corn harvest has not yet commenced, and the final yield remains contingent on stable weather conditions in the coming months. Nevertheless, industry consensus holds that this upward revision in production forecasts has injected certainty into global grain markets, helping to alleviate concerns over supply chain volatility.
