On January 20th, President-elect Donald Trump will hold his inauguration ceremony. What policies will he implement in the space sector once in office? According to the “Space” website on January 19th, both U.S. and European space agencies are closely monitoring the new space policy Trump is set to unveil, as it could significantly alter the future trajectory of America’s crewed lunar missions and Mars exploration.
Europe on Edge
The latest report states that Joseph Ashbach, the Director-General of the European Space Agency (ESA), recently outlined the agency’s plans and budget for the coming years, as well as its strategy to enhance Europe’s independent space access via next-generation launch vehicles. However, the press conference turned into a discussion on Trump. European space officials are concerned that they may need to adjust their strategy in response to changes in U.S. space policy, especially concerning their key partner, NASA. When directly asked about potential shifts in space policy due to the alliance between President Trump, SpaceX founder Elon Musk, and Jared Isaacman, who has been nominated as NASA’s new administrator, Ashbach responded cautiously, saying, “What I can say right now is that we are prepared for any scenario. We are in very close communication with our NASA colleagues, particularly on the issues you’ve raised.”
The “Space” website explains that the impact of potential shifts in U.S. space policy on ESA is significant because many of Europe’s most critical space projects depend on the U.S. For instance, ESA is involved in several key subprojects of NASA’s “Artemis” crewed lunar landing program, including the development of the “European Service Module” for NASA’s “Orion” crewed spacecraft.
However, the core of the “Artemis” program, the “Space Launch System” (SLS) heavy-lift rocket, faces the risk of cancellation due to severe cost overruns, potentially altering the plans for the lunar Gateway and other space infrastructure. When asked about the potential impact of canceling the SLS, Daniel Neuenschwander, ESA’s Director of Human and Robotic Exploration, emphasized, “The cancellation of the SLS rocket will only affect ESA if no other rocket is capable of carrying the Orion spacecraft and the European Service Module to lunar orbit. We are exploring all options and engaging in discussions with our partners—primarily NASA.”
Two U.S. Projects in Trouble
CNN reported that the reason so much attention is being paid to potential changes in U.S. space policy under Trump is due to the troubled state of America’s two flagship space projects: the crewed lunar landing and Mars exploration missions.
The “Artemis” crewed lunar mission was launched during Trump’s first term, with the initial goal of landing astronauts on the Moon and establishing a sustainable presence by 2024, laying the groundwork for future crewed missions to Mars. The “Artemis” program has three phases: constructing the lunar Gateway, developing the rockets and spacecraft to reach it, and building the lunar landers for missions to the Moon’s surface. In 2019, under pressure from President Trump, NASA moved up its goal to send humans to the Moon from 2028 to 2024.
However, due to delays in the development of the SLS rocket, Orion spacecraft, and lunar spacesuits, the “Artemis” mission has faced repeated setbacks. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson decided in December 2024 to delay the “Artemis 2” crewed lunar flyby mission and the “Artemis 3” lunar landing at the Moon’s south pole by two years.
The Guardian reported on January 17th that, under Trump’s return to the White House, the “Artemis” program’s priority may increase, possibly achieving the goal of returning U.S. astronauts to the Moon during his term. However, many speculate that NASA may make significant adjustments to the plan. Speculation includes the possibility that, due to criticism of the SLS rocket’s high cost per launch (around $4 billion), and Trump’s good relations with SpaceX CEO Musk and the newly nominated NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, the “Artemis” program may switch to using SpaceX’s “Starship” super-heavy rocket for its launches.
Similarly, the Mars Sample Return mission is also in trouble. USA Today reported on January 18th that NASA and ESA have been struggling for years to bring Mars rock samples back to Earth for in-depth study. The escalating costs and significant delays have made the original target of returning samples by the 2030s seem “out of reach.” NASA has now decided that the future of this project will be determined after Trump’s inauguration. On January 7th, NASA Administrator Nelson announced two new plans that could reduce costs from $11 billion to between $6-7 billion. One option involves using the “sky crane” system, which was previously used by NASA’s “Perseverance” and “Curiosity” rovers to land on Mars. The second option involves a private aerospace company developing a new landing system.
Other Research Projects in Uncertainty
Scott Pace, Director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University, believes that Trump and Isaacman may not immediately make major adjustments to NASA’s space programs. He quoted a Washington saying, “Those who know don’t speak, and those who speak don’t know.” The Trump administration may take considerable time to reorganize NASA’s current chaotic space plans and reimagine mid-term missions.
In addition to the high-profile lunar and Mars exploration missions, the fate of NASA’s other, less politically charged, basic research projects is uncertain. According to the “Space News” website, there is growing anxiety about the future of these projects. At the 245th American Astronomical Society meeting on January 13th, astronomers expressed concerns about potential changes to NASA’s scientific programs under Trump’s new government. U.S. research funding has been steadily cut in recent years. NASA’s budget request for the 2024 fiscal year was $27.2 billion, but it was ultimately reduced to $24.875 billion, leading to the cancellation or layoffs in many projects. In fiscal year 2025, with the Mars Sample Return project effectively halted, NASA received $25.4 billion, just enough to maintain current operations.
Scientists at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center worry that Trump’s administration may once again target significant research projects, including Earth science programs related to plankton, aerosols, ocean ecosystems, and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. U.S. Congressman Glenn Ivey stated that, once Trump assumes office, he will urge NASA to move “in the right direction.” “I’m not sure how NASA’s new leadership will approach development, but I hope they find a way to protect science and R&D.”
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