The insufficient supply of large-caliber shells and other consumable munitions provided by Europe and the U.S. remains the top issue for Ukrainian frontline troops. Despite Western countries ramping up production and sourcing globally, they still cannot fill the “ammo black hole” on the Russia-Ukraine front.
With U.S. President-elect Trump, who advocates for a new Ukraine aid policy, about to take office, European nations have adopted a new approach—giving Ukraine money to figure out its own production solutions.
However, this idea was barely introduced before being dealt a harsh blow by the brutal realities on the ground…
The Wall Street Journal reported on the 26th that Ukraine’s European allies are currently struggling to produce enough weapons to meet its needs. As a result, they have adopted a new approach: directly providing Ukraine with funds to produce the weapons themselves.
Under this latest plan, European nations will provide funding to the Ukrainian government, allowing cash-strapped Ukrainian arms manufacturers to produce the equipment needed by its forces, including long-range missiles and drones capable of striking Russian territory. Ukraine will inform its European backers of the companies it plans to work with and the specific weapons it intends to purchase. The allies will then review the manufacturer details before deciding whether to approve the deal.
Although this model cannot deliver advanced systems like the Patriot missile defense system, it could, in theory, partially address Ukraine’s urgent need for consumable munitions such as large-caliber shells. This approach has been dubbed the “Danish Model” because it was proposed earlier this year by Denmark and Ukraine as a solution. Reportedly, due to financial constraints, Ukraine’s defense industry has not been operating at full capacity, achieving only about 30% of its potential production efficiency.
The “Danish Model” might sound reasonable, but reality has repeatedly shown that European countries often make questionable decisions. Case in point: multiple Western media outlets recently revealed that Ukraine had to recall up to 100,000 120mm mortar shells due to serious quality issues.
The latest reports indicate that these Ukrainian-made 120mm shells, primarily used to block Russian infantry advances on the battlefield, have been widely criticized by Ukrainian soldiers. They claim that only 1 in 10 shells fires and detonates properly, while the rest either fail to travel far enough, fail to explode upon landing, or even get stuck in the barrel. Responding to mounting complaints from frontline troops, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense stated in a press release that “preliminary investigations suggest the issue may be due to poor-quality gunpowder or improper ammunition storage conditions, resulting in damage to the mortar shells.” The Ministry’s ultimate solution? “Switch to imported shells.”
What a mess. The blame game continues: Europe says it can’t produce enough shells, so Ukraine should handle it. Ukraine then says its homemade shells are subpar and insists Europe take over again.
The fundamental flaw of the “Danish Model” lies in its initial premise. Why is Europe unable to keep up with ammunition production? Beyond the need to improve efficiency at European arms factories, the more critical issue is a shortage of raw materials, particularly the nitrocellulose used as propellant in shells.
But what makes Europe believe that Ukraine can secure sufficient raw materials for ammunition? With outdated, dilapidated equipment, frequent power outages, and a severe shortage of workers, how can Ukraine’s defense industry produce enough shells with consistent quality and quantity?
In the end, this reflects Europe’s attempt to prepare itself to shed the burden of Ukraine’s war.
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