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Implications of Russia’s Amendments to Its Nuclear Deterrence Policy

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President of Russia

On the 25th, Russian President Putin held a meeting to discuss the new version of Russia’s basic policy on nuclear deterrence. On the 26th, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the new policy should be seen as a warning signal to the West. What changes have been made in Russia’s new nuclear deterrence policy? What is the deeper meaning behind these amendments? How has the West responded?

What Changes Have Been Made in Russia’s New Nuclear Deterrence Policy?

Compared to the basic nuclear deterrence policy introduced in 2020, the new draft expands the scope of nations and military alliances subject to nuclear deterrence. It proposes treating any non-nuclear country’s aggression against Russia, supported or assisted by a nuclear state, as a “joint attack” on Russia.

The latest draft also mentions that Russia will consider the use of nuclear weapons if it receives reliable information about a mass air and space weapon strike crossing its borders. Putin emphasized that such weapons include strategic aircraft, tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, and other flying objects.

Additionally, Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against Russia or its ally Belarus, including when conventional weapons pose an “extreme threat” to their sovereignty.

On the 26th, Peskov stated that the adjustment in Russia’s nuclear deterrence policy mainly takes into account “tensions surrounding Russia’s borders.” The new policy should be viewed as a signal to the West, warning that any involvement in an attack on Russia, by any means, would bring consequences. He stressed that these means “do not necessarily have to be nuclear.”

What is the Deeper Meaning Behind Russia’s Nuclear Deterrence Policy Amendments?

A report on the 25th by the Russian website Izvestia explained that against the backdrop of discussions in the U.S. and Western countries about possibly allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons to strike deep into Russian territory, Russia’s announcement of a policy change is essentially a signal to the West in response to perceived security threats. However, the change in Russia’s nuclear policy does not mean an immediate escalation of the situation.

Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, posted on social media on the 25th that the change in the conditions for Russia’s use of nuclear components “can cool down the enthusiasm of enemies who have not yet lost their sense of self-preservation.”

Russian international relations expert Fyodor Frolov believes that by lowering the threshold for nuclear weapon use, Russia hopes to deter the West from further expanding military aid to Ukraine. However, he also noted that overly lowering the threshold could reduce flexibility and increase the risk of hastily making fatal decisions.

Other analysts have pointed out that given the geopolitical situation since 2014, especially the current situation in Ukraine, it is inevitable for Russia to update its nuclear deterrence policy. This may represent Russia’s final ultimatum to the U.S. and Western countries.

How Has the West Responded?

European Union spokesperson for foreign affairs, Peter Stano, stated at a press conference on the 26th that the EU firmly opposes Putin’s authorization to use nuclear weapons in response to “massive airstrikes” and urged the international community to work together in addressing the issue.

Senior EU analyst Georgi Gotev said that any use of nuclear weapons could have devastating consequences. He suggested that the U.S. and Russia should enhance communication to prevent misjudgments that could escalate into a nuclear conflict.

Some analysts have also suggested closely monitoring Russia’s statements but cautioned against overreacting. Fabian Hoffmann, a nuclear strategy scholar at the University of Oslo in Norway, pointed out that Russia’s use of nuclear weapons is not imminent. Concern is warranted only when Russia signals actual preparation for such action.

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