On September 6, Vavilova, the female companion of the founder of the social media platform “Telegram,” Durov, spoke out for the first time after his arrest, stating that a lot of false information was being spread. Previously, multiple media outlets, including the New York Post and The Times of India, cited observers claiming that posts by Vavilova on social media may have revealed Durov’s whereabouts, leading to his arrest on August 24 in Paris, France. While this claim has yet to be confirmed, it’s noteworthy that posts on social media are not just personal expressions but can sometimes become valuable intelligence, especially posts made by civilians or soldiers in conflict zones. Some media outlets have commented that “social media intelligence” has become a new branch of open-source intelligence, which could revolutionize information collection and analysis methods, requiring intelligence agencies worldwide to adapt to this shift.
Examples of such occurrences are “countless”
“It’s hard to say whether Vavilova’s posts directly led to Durov’s arrest, but if you follow her on social media, it’s easy to track Durov’s movements,” said Robert, a French privacy data researcher, in an interview with the New York Post. Russia Today reported that the 24-year-old influencer and Durov had been spotted together in several countries, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan. She had also posted photos believed to be of Durov’s private jet.
Although the claim that Vavilova leaked Durov’s whereabouts on social media has not been confirmed, social media has indeed become a new platform for intelligence gathering by some organizations, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict being the most prominent example. It is worth noting that Telegram, the platform founded by Durov, is one of the primary sources of intelligence for both sides of the conflict.
According to The Economist, before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, social media platforms were flooded with videos of Russian convoys. Around 3 a.m. on February 24, 2022, Lewis, a military expert from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California, used Google Maps to detect traffic jams on the Russian side of the Russia-Ukraine border, and promptly tweeted, “Something’s happening.” Less than three hours later, Russia launched its “special military operation.” In December of that same year, a Russian volunteer posted photos of Russian troops stationed at a club in the Ukrainian city of Kherson on VKontakte, Russia’s largest social media platform, and even tagged the exact location in the post. Using this post, Ukraine was able to precisely locate and destroy the club with a missile strike just days later.
The American tech blog Medium previously reported that in today’s digitally interconnected world, the vast amount of information shared on social media has opened a new field of intelligence gathering—social media open-source intelligence. In this domain, the way information is collected, analyzed, and utilized has been completely transformed. Greek media outlet Greek Reporter stated that the two most impactful areas of military conflict influenced by social media are intelligence warfare and information warfare. For intelligence personnel, the abundance of images and videos on social media is becoming an increasingly valuable source of intelligence. For information warfare experts, this highly emotional content often serves as an important tool for shaping narratives.
According to Greek Reporter, a significant amount of content related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is being posted on platforms such as X (formerly Twitter), YouTube, Instagram, Telegram, and Facebook. Many soldiers on both sides have recorded their experiences using helmet cameras, and amateur war bloggers and photojournalists have shot numerous videos and photos from the front lines. Drone footage has become even more common. Aerial views of armored vehicle skirmishes, small trench battles, and drone strikes have become iconic images associated with the conflict.
“There are countless examples of gathering intelligence via social media.” According to a Stanford University article titled From Tweets to Tactics: The Transformative Impact of Social Media on Modern Warfare Dynamics, social media had already become a source of real-time information as early as the Yemen conflict. Many Yemeni civilians and journalists reported airstrikes and military blockades on social media platforms like Facebook. Both sides of the conflict used social media to gather intelligence, comparing satellite images for open-source analysis and launching strikes on relevant targets.
Military experts say that gathering intelligence from social media is an extension of traditional open-source intelligence methods. “It should be said that intelligence agencies have been paying attention to social media information since its emergence. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, however, led to a surge in military information on social media, which increased the richness of social media intelligence and sparked widespread attention.”
According to The Economist, U.S. Navy analyst Sutton said that while there has been ongoing effort to limit the collection of open-source intelligence, it continues to evolve. He cited the example of NASA’s Fire Information Resource Management System, initially developed to track forest fires, now being used to detect missile launches and shell explosions, allowing researchers to identify the latest frontline situations.
“The Weaponization of Social Media”
Collecting intelligence via social media has several characteristics. These include real-time updates, with social media providing near real-time information, crucial for rapidly changing military and security situations; a broad reach, as social media platforms have users all over the world, offering a wide array of information sources that can cover regions and groups beyond the reach of traditional intelligence collection methods; diversity, as social media posts take many forms—text, images, videos—providing rich material for intelligence analysis; interactivity, with social media’s two-way communication allowing intelligence agencies to observe interactions between users and infer potential military or security developments; and concealment, as intelligence agencies can collect and analyze information without revealing their identity.
However, open-source intelligence from social media has its limitations. According to The New York Times and The Economist, some analysis organizations have noted that, on average, it can take one to three days to pinpoint a location based on a single image. Former head of British Defence Intelligence Hockenhull likened traditional intelligence work to piecing together a puzzle without a reference image, while open-source intelligence work involves countless puzzle pieces, allowing for the creation of “unlimited images.” However, this also leads to “fragmented realities,” one issue being “self-deception,” where people interpret warfare according to their wishes rather than the truth. Another issue is the ease of being misled by content that an adversary wants you to see. The RAND Corporation has warned that an army could strategically use social media to deceive its enemies by hiding or sending fake location data.
“The sheer scale of content related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict on social media has dramatically increased the potential for intelligence gathering. In fact, one of the main challenges intelligence agencies face is not a lack of intelligence but ‘information overload.’ This emphasizes the need for adequate processing and analysis throughout the intelligence cycle,” wrote Greek Reporter. The Economist noted that for armies trying to maintain operational security, this vast amount of data is a nightmare.
Experts argue that social media’s big data nature requires intelligence agencies to adopt new tools and technologies, such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, to process and analyze large amounts of data.
Countries like the U.S. and the U.K. have already recognized the importance of social media intelligence. Hockenhull previously stated that open-source intelligence currently accounts for only about 20% of the U.K.’s intelligence efforts, but it should play a leading role. “The U.S. needs to swiftly address the weaponization of social media.” In August 2024, The Washington Times reported that American Army senior open-source intelligence advisor Eggers stated at an Army Association event: “In my view, the next war we fight will either be in space or in this information environment, followed by kinetic warfare.”
At the Pentagon, Eggers is not alone in this belief. In 2021, the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) announced that it would spend $59.5 million over four years for researchers to develop algorithms to collect content, including memes, political ads, and social media posts.
The U.S. Department of Defense’s Influence Operations and Perception Awareness Project is part of a government initiative aimed at creating tools to use social media posts and memes to combat enemies. In 2021, Keller, the DARPA official in charge of the project, told The Washington Times that the Pentagon had reached an agreement with some researchers to review Twitter data. By 2024, the U.S. Army hopes to expand its review beyond X. The U.S. Army Cyber Command’s foreign malign influence advisor, Snyder, emphasized the need to map out each country’s social media usage. After identifying the app usage habits of people around the world, the U.S. military will work to change online narratives.
“Loose Lips Sink Ships”
“Loose lips sink ships.” This World War II-era saying hinted at the U.S. military’s strict surveillance of soldiers’ communications to prevent the disclosure of locations, operations, or combat results. Whenever soldiers wrote letters home, the military would monitor and even censor them. The advent of social media has undoubtedly posed new challenges for the military’s regulation efforts. Some believe that stopping soldiers from posting geotagged updates on X or Instagram presents a far more complex challenge than censoring letters. Unlike handwritten letters, every social media update has the potential to reach more people, and others can quickly extract relevant information.
The RAND Corporation has noted that militaries and governments around the world are seeking ways to prevent ships from metaphorically sinking due to “loose lips.” So far, measures include soldier training and restricted internet access. Military personnel are educated to self-censor and not disclose any information that could be exploited by adversaries. Moreover, access to social media is often banned on government networks, though this has little effect on soldiers using smartphones or tablets. Western governments have tried banning such personal devices, but with mixed results.
The British think tank Royal United Services Institute has stated that completely halting soldiers’ online activities is impossible, and educating them to raise awareness may be the best way to close these gaps. Most militaries have regulations regarding the use of mobile phones. According to The Economist, in 2019, Russia passed a law prohibiting soldiers from uploading sensitive photos or videos. Just before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia began shutting down train-tracking websites. Russia also attempted to hide insignias on soldiers’ uniforms and vehicle markings to prevent the location of entire units from being revealed.
In response to the impact of social media intelligence on national security, experts have suggested that governments should strengthen regulation of social media content to prevent the spread of harmful information; improve public awareness and media literacy through education and campaigns to reduce the influence of misinformation; utilize advanced technologies like AI to monitor and analyze social media information; and foster international cooperation with other countries and organizations to address cross-border cybersecurity threats. Finally, they should develop and improve relevant laws and regulations to punish illegal activities on social media.
Some analysis agencies believe that leaks on social media are sometimes unavoidable, indicating the need for different approaches to tackle this issue. Technology vendors are recognizing the expanding market for software or hardware that provides a safer social media access environment for both soldiers and civilians. Militaries and governments can set these secure options as default or even mandatory.
Stanford University’s article also noted that intelligence agencies around the world urgently need to shift their work models, striking a delicate balance between maintaining the public’s right to share and access information and minimizing the risk that such data could offer adversaries unintended surveillance opportunities. Governments should collaborate with tech companies and social media platforms to develop advanced algorithms and tools to filter and manage sensitive content, while also balancing security needs and the protection of individual freedoms.
The RAND Corporation has suggested that while securing information is important, relevant stakeholders must also learn to harness social media intelligence. “The sheer scale and variety of open-source intelligence today is overwhelming. This may mean that those who strictly control information will no longer benefit the most. Instead, those who invest in rigorous analysis tools will be able to better utilize the data flood, extracting key information to support decision-making in the new fog of virtual war.”
Leave a comment