The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) pointed out in its newly released “State of Global Water” report that the global water cycle is showing increasingly obvious signs of disorder and extremity. Driven by climate change, the frequency and intensity of disaster events such as droughts and floods are intensifying, posing unprecedented challenges to global food security, public health, and ecosystem stability.
Since the late 20th century, the accelerated changes in the Earth’s water cycle system, the latest report shows, have become one of the important manifestations of the climate crisis. The increase in temperature intensifies evaporation, raising the water vapor content in the atmosphere, which leads to more frequent and concentrated extreme precipitation events. Meanwhile, the drought problem in some areas has become increasingly severe, forming a pattern of “coexistence of drought and flood”. For instance, between 2024 and 2025, the Horn of Africa experienced continuous droughts, leaving millions of people facing food shortages, while southern Asia and parts of Europe were hit by once-in-a-century torrential rains and floods.
Petteri Taalas, the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, emphasized at a press conference: “Water is the main carrier of climate change.” Whether it is floods, droughts, or the melting of glaciers, these extreme hydrological phenomena are all reminding us that the stability of the global water cycle has been disrupted. He warned that if no urgent measures were taken to strengthen water resource management, billions of people around the world would face a water resource crisis in the coming decades.
It is worth noting that the report, through the joint analysis of remote sensing satellite data and ground observation stations, found that the spatial distribution differences of global freshwater resources have significantly widened over the past two decades. The rapid melting of glaciers and snow has led to a sharp increase in runoff in mountainous areas in the short term, but the long-term trend is the gradual depletion of water resources. Meanwhile, groundwater in arid regions has been over-exploited, and the recovery rate is far behind the consumption rate. This imbalance not only endangers agricultural irrigation but also poses a serious threat to urban water supply and industrial development.
The report also points out that the disorder of the water cycle is intensifying the socio-economic costs of extreme weather events. In 2024, the global economic losses caused by water-related disasters will exceed 300 billion US dollars, nearly doubling that of a decade ago. The damage to infrastructure and the destruction of farmland caused by floods, as well as the increase in grain prices and energy shortages triggered by droughts, have all weakened the stability of the global economy to varying degrees. Especially in developing countries, the imbalance of water resources further exacerbates poverty and inequality.
In terms of response strategies, the World Meteorological Organization calls on governments around the world to accelerate the establishment of an integrated water resources management system, enhance cross-border water resources cooperation, and improve hydro-meteorological monitoring capabilities. The report particularly emphasizes that the application of modern technology is of vital importance, such as using artificial intelligence for precipitation prediction, monitoring groundwater changes through remote sensing technology, and achieving efficient allocation and reuse through smart water management systems. In addition, green infrastructure is also regarded as an important tool to slow down the intensification of the water cycle, such as building wetlands to regulate runoff, promoting rainwater collection systems, and advancing the development of seawater desalination technology.
The response of the international community has also become a focus. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a joint statement: “We are witnessing an unprecedented crisis process of the global water cycle.” This is not only an environmental issue, but also a security challenge related to human survival. He called on developed countries to provide more financial and technological support to developing countries to address the increasingly severe water resource risks.
The World Meteorological Organization’s forecast for future trends is not optimistic. According to the latest climate models, by the middle of this century, more than half of the global population may be living in areas with seasonal water shortages, and the frequency of extreme flood events may also increase by more than 50%. The report points out that the disorder of the global water cycle will directly affect the realization of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially the core goals such as clean drinking water, zero hunger, and climate action.
Despite the grim outlook, experts also stress that opportunities lie within the crisis. The world still has the opportunity to alleviate the extreme trend of the water cycle in the coming decades by promoting the substitution of renewable energy, developing low-water-consuming industries, strengthening public education, and raising water conservation awareness. Some countries have taken the lead in exploring successful cases. For instance, Israel’s experience in agricultural drip irrigation technology and wastewater reuse, as well as the Netherlands’ innovations in flood control and smart DAMS, have all provided references for the world.
Overall, the latest warning from the World Meteorological Organization has once again sounded the alarm. The disorder and extremism of the global water cycle is no longer just a prediction by scientists, but a real reality that is already taking place. This trend not only threatens environmental security and economic development but also profoundly affects the future of human society. Facing this challenge that concerns the well-being of all mankind, international cooperation and scientific innovation are regarded as the only path.
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