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Zuckerberg’s AI Gamble: Talent Wars and Bubble Risk

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Mark Zuckerberg

“The attle for AI dominance has never been this fierce.” According to multiple U.S. media outlets, America is in the midst of a rapidly escalating “arms race” for AI talent. Among the tech giants, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is pursuing top-tier talent with unmatched aggression. The Wall Street Journal reports that he’s trying to “raid” the country’s leading AI research labs, even offering signing bonuses of up to $100 million to lure AI prodigies to Meta—a move that has caused a stir in Silicon Valley.

The Race for AI Supremacy

On June 30 (local time), Zuckerberg announced a major company overhaul: all of Meta’s AI projects and operations will now be consolidated under a newly formed division called the Meta Super Intelligence Lab (MSL). This new unit is tasked with developing advanced AI systems capable of outperforming humans at various tasks. Meta is also backing up this initiative with serious money—investing $14.3 billion in startup Scale AI and hiring its former CEO, Alexandr Wang. Additionally, Nat Friedman, former GitHub CEO and a well-known investor, has also joined Meta’s AI ranks.

Zuckerberg is reportedly chasing a hypothetical, god-like technology called “superintelligence.” In an internal memo, he wrote that the top mission of the Meta Super Intelligence Lab (MSL) is to “bring personal superintelligence to everyone.” According to people close to him, only a handful of Silicon Valley companies are seen as having the expertise to develop this kind of technology. At the same time, Meta is looking to raise $29 billion to expand its data centers across the U.S. The New York Times reports that Zuckerberg has stepped up efforts to keep Meta competitive in this rapidly intensifying AI arms race.

This high-risk push comes on the heels of key executive departures at Meta and disappointing feedback on its latest open-source model, Llama 4. According to a Reuters report on July 1, the model underperformed in independent reasoning and coding benchmarks, drawing criticism. These setbacks have left Meta trailing behind competitors like Google, OpenAI, and xAI.

OpenAI Accuses Meta of “Raiding”

Feeling the pressure, Zuckerberg launched a series of aggressive moves that stunned Silicon Valley. Reuters reports that over the past month, he personally led a high-intensity talent raid, targeting startups including Safe Superintelligence, founded by OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever. He has reportedly offered multimillion-dollar pay packages directly via WhatsApp to lure top talent.

Just this month alone, Zuckerberg has approached more than 45 AI researchers from rival OpenAI. According to two sources, some received formal offers, with at least one signing bonus hitting $100 million. At least four OpenAI researchers have accepted Meta’s offers. In an internal memo dated June 30, Zuckerberg listed 11 top researchers who had joined Meta from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google.

For OpenAI, Meta’s aggressive recruitment drive poses a serious threat. According to India’s Livemint on July 1, at least eight senior OpenAI researchers have joined Meta in just a few weeks, sparking internal concerns over morale and project continuity. OpenAI’s Chief Scientist Mark Chen said, “Right now, it feels like we’re being robbed.” He added that the company is “working around the clock to engage with those who’ve received offers,” doing everything possible to keep them at OpenAI. To prevent further departures, Chen said OpenAI is now “recalibrating compensation.”

The reality is that this talent war has caused AI researcher and engineer salaries to skyrocket. According to the Financial Times on July 1, citing tech industry recruiters and recent hiring data, some top AI engineers are now earning over $10 million a year, while typical compensation packages range from $3 million to $7 million—up roughly 50% since 2022.

An AI Investment Bubble?

According to U.S. financial platform AInvest, talent retention has become a zero-sum game, and “Meta’s AI strategy is a high-risk, high-reward gamble.” The report notes that Meta’s Super Intelligence Lab is a bold response to the AI race. By uniting top talent, open-source innovation, and robust infrastructure, Meta is building a powerful tech stack. But execution remains the biggest unknown. How Llama 4 performs in real-world applications, and how well Meta integrates with Scale AI—these will be the key milestones to reveal whether the strategy is paying off.

AFP reported on June 30 that Zuckerberg’s large-scale hiring spree has sparked debate over whether this aggressive approach can actually succeed in the intense generative AI race. Angelo Zino, an analyst at the U.S. Center for Financial Research and Analysis, told AFP that acquiring AI talent is a long-term investment that’s unlikely to boost Meta’s profits immediately. “Still,” he said, “now is the time to bring them in and invest heavily to be ready for the next phase of generative AI.”

According to The Wall Street Journal, Meta plans to invest roughly $70 billion in AI this year alone—while Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet are spending even more. Compared to hardware, investing in people appears more cost-effective.

But what happens if Silicon Valley’s AI bubble bursts? The UK’s Computer Weekly warns that U.S. tech giants are struggling to convert their inventions into actual revenue. Industry leaders in Silicon Valley are now relying on a kind of messianic belief in AI’s untapped potential to justify their tech race.

Experts caution that investors may eventually grow frustrated with the long wait for returns. In its November 2024 global risk assessment report, the European Central Bank warned that if profit expectations aren’t met soon, AI stocks could collapse. The message is clear: if investors’ short-term profit demands diverge too far from tech companies’ long-term vision-building, Silicon Valley could quickly lose its appeal. A market correction that steep would deal a serious blow to the U.S. AI sector.

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