Latest statistics disclosed by the financial data firm LSEG reveal a historic breakthrough for the United States in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports – reaching 10.1 million tons in October alone, making it the first country globally to achieve a monthly export volume exceeding 10 million tons in the history of global energy trade. This figure represents an 11% increase compared to the revised 9.1 million tons in September, marking the fourth consecutive month of record-breaking US LNG exports.
The core drivers behind this record are capacity expansions from two major energy companies. Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 project in Texas achieved production increases, coupled with the commencement of operations at Venture Global’s newly built Plaquemines export facility in Louisiana, collectively propelling the US export capacity upward. Data shows that the Plaquemines facility exported 2.2 million tons in October, a 37.5% increase from the previous record of 1.6 million tons set last month; the Corpus Christi facility exported 1.6 million tons during the same period, also setting a new operational record.
As the largest US LNG exporter, Cheniere Energy performed particularly strongly in October. In addition to the aforementioned two projects, its Sabine Pass facility exported 2.6 million tons that month. These three projects combined contributed 4.2 million tons, accounting for 42% of the nation’s total exports. The company’s CEO, Jack Fusco, revealed in a recent earnings call that with the full operation of the Corpus Christi Stage 3 project, total exports in 2024 are expected to exceed 50 million tons.
The latest news reported that in terms of market structure, Cheniere Energy and Venture Global together accounted for 72% of total US exports in October. Among them, Venture Global’s Plaquemines facility, although newly operational, has quickly become the second-largest US export terminal. This industry concentration reflects the emerging competitive landscape in US LNG exports, dominated by leading companies.
Tracing the industry’s development trajectory, the lower 48 US states only achieved their first LNG exports in 2016. Benefiting from the shift in resource endowment brought about by the shale gas revolution, the US completed its transformation from an energy importer to the world’s largest exporter within just seven years, successively surpassing traditional supply giants like Australia and Qatar. The current annualized US LNG export capacity has reached 130 million tons, a 5.5-fold increase from less than 20 million tons in 2016.
Regarding flow directions, the European market continues to dominate. Ship tracking data shows that 6.9 million tons of US LNG arrived at European ports in October, an 11% increase from 6.22 million tons in September. This is mainly driven by European countries accelerating inventory replenishment to cope with winter peak demand, with significant increases in receipts by Germany, France, Spain, and others. The Asian market received 1.96 million tons, a 20% month-on-month increase, but its scale remains less than one-third of the European market.
Price factors profoundly influence trade flows. The average October TTF gas price in Europe was $10.88 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), while the average Asian JKM index price was $11.11/MMBtu. The price gap between them narrowed further to just $0.23 compared to September. This minimal difference provides little incentive for exporters to divert cargoes to the Asian market, which involves higher transportation costs, thereby solidifying Europe’s position as the largest buyer of US LNG. Market analysis points out that if European gas prices surge significantly due to supply tightness this winter, it could alter the current trade flow pattern.
