Recently, discussions about Tesla’s humanoid robot Optimus have heated up again. This product, which Musk has high hopes for, is seen as a key pillar of Tesla’s future. However, the actual progress does not seem to be as smooth as Musk had hoped.
According to insiders, Musk set a goal to produce at least 5,000 Optimus robots by 2025. However, as of now, Tesla has only manufactured a few hundred units, falling far short of the target. This means Tesla needs to significantly ramp up production in the remaining time to achieve this goal.
This predicament has drawn widespread attention in the industry. Jim Fan, an expert in NVIDIA’s AI field, offered an interesting perspective, comparing a certain phenomenon in the current robotics field to a mini version of the “Moravec’s Paradox.” Jim Fan pointed out that while robots can easily perform highly difficult gymnastic movements, they struggle with seemingly simple tasks like cooking and cleaning.
Jim Fan’s view highlights a key issue in current robotics technology: although robots have made significant progress in certain specific areas, they still face enormous challenges in general dexterous manipulation. This has led to a situation where many robots can perform high-difficulty gymnastic moves but appear inadequate when dealing with complex environments.
Tesla’s Optimus robot faces the same problem. According to the latest news, Tesla is working on solving the technical issues related to the robot’s hands, which is a critical hurdle that must be overcome to create a robot capable of performing a variety of tasks. However, whether from a hardware or software perspective, building mechanical hands that rival human hands is an extremely challenging task.
Tesla is also facing internal turbulence. Recently, Milan Kovac, the engineering lead for Optimus, left the company, adding to the pressure on Tesla to advance the Optimus project. At the same time, Tesla has sued a startup, accusing it of stealing trade secrets to quickly develop a competitive dexterous hand.
Despite the many challenges, Musk’s praise for Optimus has never ceased. He has claimed that this robot could eventually surpass Tesla‘s electric vehicle business and drive the company’s valuation to an astonishing $25 trillion. However, this vision still seems far out of reach.
During Tesla’s earnings call, Musk was vague about how Optimus would contribute to Tesla’s revenue in the future. He mentioned that by 2030, Tesla could produce over 1 million Optimus units annually, but whether this number can be achieved remains highly uncertain.
Nevertheless, Tesla is betting on its strong pool of engineering talent and its ability to rapidly scale Optimus manufacturing through its car factories. Tesla is trying to stand out in the fierce competition with numerous rivals and turn Optimus into a revolutionary product that can enter millions of households and various industries.
However, reality is always more complex than vision. In the process of advancing the Optimus project, Tesla not only needs to overcome technical challenges but also deal with internal turbulence and external competition. Whether Musk can realize his ambition of making Optimus a key pillar of Tesla’s future remains to be seen.
