Japanese rice prices are entering a new cycle of increases, intensifying pressure on household budgets. According to the latest statistics released by Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries on September 22, the average price of a 5-kilogram bag of rice across over 1,000 stores nationwide reached 4,275 yen (approximately 205.5 yuan) during the period from September 8 to 14. This represents a 120-yen increase from the previous week. marking three consecutive weeks of increases and two consecutive weeks above the 4,000 yen threshold. This approaches the historical peak of 4,285 yen set in May this year.
This surge has delivered a significant blow to household budgets. Data reveals that in April 2025, Japanese rice prices soared by 98.4% year-on-year—the steepest increase since 1971—with some premium varieties dubbed “as valuable as gold” by media outlets. Ordinary households have been forced to adjust their diets, with many reducing rice consumption to just 2-3 times per week. They’ve turned to alternatives like noodles and bread, and some have even resorted to the extreme practice of rationing rice by the gram.
Natural Disasters and Structural Dilemmas
The recent surge in rice prices stems from the combined effects of short-term climatic shocks and long-term structural imbalances. Directly, extreme heatwaves during the 2024 summer caused widespread crop failures in Japan’s rice fields. This, coupled with elevated initial pricing for newly harvested rice and reduced supply of government-subsidized reserve rice, directly drove up market averages. Last August’s earthquake warnings also triggered panic buying, further exacerbating supply-demand imbalances.
The deeper roots lie in Japan’s long-standing agricultural challenges. Although the “production reduction policy” implemented since 1971 was nominally abolished in 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries continues to encourage farmers to leave fields fallow through “appropriate production volume” guidelines and subsidies. This has led to a persistent decline in rice output and weakened resilience against risks. More concerning is the longstanding dominance of the “government-official-farmer” power triangle in shaping policy. The National Agricultural Cooperative Federation (JA) controls over 90% of rice transactions and monopolizes 95% of government reserve rice releases for stockpiling, creating a monopoly structure that allows them to “buy low and sell high.”
Government Responses and Their Limits
Faced with rising prices, the Japanese government’s regulatory measures have had limited effect. To stabilize prices, the government released duty-free imported rice three months earlier than planned this year, delivering approximately 60,000 tons to date. Private enterprises’ imports in July surged 200-fold year-on-year. However, driven by high domestic rice prices, overall market prices continue to trend upward. Moreover, imported rice accounts for only a tiny fraction of total consumption, making it difficult to significantly alter the supply-demand dynamics.
The release of reserve rice has also encountered difficulties. Of the 410,000 tons of reserve rice released since March this year, only 7% has actually reached the retail market, with the remainder mostly hoarded by agricultural cooperatives for resale at higher prices. Although the newly appointed Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries pledged to reduce the price of 5-kg rice packages to below ¥3,000, analysts point out that reserve rice auctions often follow a “highest bidder wins” approach, which may actually fuel price increases. In the long run, Japan’s food security faces severe challenges due to the aging agricultural population, with the average age exceeding 70, and the continuous decline in the number of farming households.
