Extreme weather has swept across the Northern Hemisphere, from Europe to Asia, with many countries facing heatwaves, droughts, and floods. Recently, multiple national media outlets reported that extreme weather conditions are driving up food prices, increasing the risk and crisis of global food security.
Abnormal climate conditions worldwide are damaging agricultural production.
Climate anomalies can alter crop growth cycles and geographical distribution. According to the Financial Times, 60 years ago, when Italian farmer Divita’s grandparents opened an olive mill in Sicily, the island’s climate was ideal for growing olives. Now, running the olive oil factory with his brother, Divita says the situation has changed. With rising average temperatures and decreasing rainfall, growing olives and producing olive oil has become increasingly difficult. This year, olive prices in the Mediterranean region have surged to their highest level in 20 years.
In the United States, after two years of drought, farmers in Minnesota faced the opposite problem at the end of June—extremely wet soil. Rainfall washed out roads and caused river levels to rise, leading to floods. Minnesota Agriculture Commissioner Peterson stated, “Many crops in Minnesota have not been planted yet, which will be a fatal blow to farmers trying to plant.”
The report suggests that climate change is challenging agriculture and farmers. Over the next decade, rising temperatures and frequent extreme weather events could affect harvests, leading to potential shortages of key crops worldwide.
When spring temperatures exceed 27.8°C, wheat yields drop significantly. Recent studies have found that temperatures in key wheat-growing areas of China and the U.S. are increasingly surpassing this threshold. Research from Tufts University’s Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy indicates that heatwaves, once considered once-in-a-century events in 1981, now occur every six years in the U.S. Midwest and every 16 years in northeastern China.
Staples like rice, soybeans, corn, and potatoes could see significant yield reductions. Media analyses indicate that higher temperatures typically mean lower yields for many crops. Kuik, an economist with the European Central Bank, stated, “Depending on the crop, yields are quite stable within a temperature range of 20°C to 30°C. Beyond this range, yields drop sharply.”
William Hines, senior climate change economist at the World Bank, noted that climate change affects crop yields and food prices in numerous ways. “The entire system is changing.”
Bringing risks
According to Inside Climate News on July 1, widespread flooding in the U.S. Upper Midwest, including Iowa, has devastated farming towns. Most of Iowa’s crops are used to feed cattle, pigs, and chickens, potentially leading to higher meat prices in grocery stores nationwide.
Kuik mentioned that regions like South America and Africa, where temperatures already frequently approach damaging thresholds for crops, could see greater impacts on food prices with further temperature increases. In contrast, even temperate Europe has suffered severe impacts from climate change and consequent inflation during summer. ECB researchers found that Europe’s hot summer in 2022 increased food inflation by about 0.6 percentage points.
The Financial Times quoted Adam, co-founder of global agricultural hedge fund Farrer Capital, saying that climate change has contributed to this year’s rise in food commodity prices. “Wheat prices have risen by 17%, palm oil by 23%, sugar by 9%, and pork by 21%.”
In countries reliant on food imports, market fluctuations are more severe. South Korea’s consumer price index (CPI) for June showed a 13.3% year-on-year increase in agricultural product prices, raising the overall CPI by 0.49 percentage points, with apple and pear prices soaring 63.1% and 139.6%, respectively.
Bloomberg reported that Norway plans to stockpile enough wheat by 2029 to meet three months of consumption for its entire population, reflecting deeper concerns over food security.
For farmers, climate change also means higher input costs, especially for small-scale farming. Lands that once produced abundant crops with just rainfall now require irrigation. Warmer climates favor the breeding and survival of pests, necessitating more pesticides.
To withstand harvest season temperatures of 40°C, the Divita brothers had to invest in special cooling machinery. High temperatures also affect labor productivity, increasing production costs, which are then passed on to consumers, further driving up food prices.
How to deal with in the future?
Not all regions will experience reduced crop yields. Hines noted that climate change might enable some areas or countries to grow more specific crops.
“Food crises caused by various natural and man-made disasters, especially extreme weather, are not uncommon in human history. However, with the advancement of disaster response technology, severe food problems are usually confined to local areas,” said Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Rural Development Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in an interview with the Global Times on July 8. He acknowledged that extreme weather increases uncertainty for food security, but because of hedging from other major food-producing regions, global food market fluctuations are not significant.
Regarding concerns over frequent extreme weather in China since the start of the flood season, Li stated that as China’s agricultural modernization progresses, its ability to resist flood and drought disasters improves. He believes, “The impact of this year’s weather on food production will be contained within a relatively small scope, continuing to contribute to global food security.”
However, external market volatility could affect China’s imports. Li suggested that China could regulate import quantities to smooth out the impacts of external market volatility on its imports, thereby promoting positive development in the global food market.
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