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Home Agricultural: Farming, News & Trends Analysis of Global Supply and Demand Situation for Wheat, Corn, Rice, and Soybeans

Analysis of Global Supply and Demand Situation for Wheat, Corn, Rice, and Soybeans

Corn report

USDA’s latest May supply and demand report, the global wheat, corn, rice, and soybean supply and demand situation was further adjusted.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) May supply and demand report pushed up CBOT corn prices and also spurred wheat prices to soar. 2024/25 global wheat ending stocks are expected to fall to the lowest since 2015/16, and wheat exporting powerhouse Russia is facing the risk of reduced production, CBOT wheat futures soared on Friday; global corn production and stocks will fall from the previous year’s record levels, lower than the industry estimates, giving corn prices some upside.

Wheat: production and consumption revised upwards, stocks revised downwards

Production upward: Global wheat production in 2023/24 was revised by about 10.47 million tonnes to a record 798.2 million tonnes. However, the increase in global production was offset by a reduction in ending stocks in several countries (notably China and Russia). Increases in production in India, China, Australia, Kazakhstan, Canada, and the United States will offset declines in production in Russia, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and Ukraine.

  • USDA lowered EU wheat production by 2.15 million tonnes to 132 million tonnes from 134 million tonnes.
  • It lowered Russian wheat production by 3.5 million tonnes to 88 million tonnes.
  • Raised Chinese wheat production by 3.4 million tonnes to 140 million tonnes.

Consumption revised upwards: Global consumption in 2024/25 is forecast to increase by 2 million tonnes to a record 802.4 million tonnes as edible, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is expected to continue to grow, while feed and other use is expected to decline as feed grain prices will be more competitive than wheat. India is the country with the most FSI growth, while China is the country with the most reduction in feed and other uses.

Stock down: Global ending stocks are forecast at 253.6 million tonnes in 2024/25, down 4.2 million tonnes from the previous year and the lowest since 2015/16. Russia and the EU saw the largest stock declines, although these were somewhat offset by increases in the US and India.

Import/export downgrade: Global wheat imports and exports of 215.4 million tonnes in 2023/24 are revised down by about 3.8 million tonnes. Russia will remain the world’s leading wheat exporter in 2024/25, with exports projected to reach 52 million tonnes, but down from 2023/24 exports of 53.5 million tonnes. Exports are expected to increase in Australia, Argentina, the United States, Kazakhstan, and Canada, but decrease in Ukraine, the EU, and Turkey.

Rice: production consumption stocks revised upwards

Production revised upwards: global rice production is expected to reach a record 527.6 million tonnes, more than offsetting the decline in opening stocks, thus increasing rice supplies year-on-year. The record-high global rice production is mainly due to higher output in India, China, Bangladesh, and Indonesia.

Consumption revised upwards: Global consumption is forecast to reach a record 526.4 million tonnes, mainly due to higher consumption in India, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Bangladesh, offsetting lower consumption in China. With both production and consumption projected to increase in many countries, global trade is forecast to increase only slightly to 53.8 million tonnes, still below the level of trade in 2022 before India first restricts rice exports.

Stocks upward: Global ending stocks of rice in 2024/25 are forecast at 176.1 million tonnes, up 1.2 million tonnes from the previous year, which would be the first increase in global stocks since 2020/21.

Import and export revised upwards: global rice imports and exports in 2023/24 are both revised slightly upwards by about 300,000 tonnes to 53.83 million tonnes. India remains the main exporter, with exports expected to reach 18 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from 2023/24, but below the record 22 million tonnes in 2021/22, as current export restrictions are expected to limit exports.

Corn: production stocks revised down, consumption revised up

Production downward: global maize production is set to fall to 1,220 million tonnes from the previous year’s record level, with the largest declines in the US, Ukraine, Zambia, Argentina, Malawi, Mozambique, and Turkey. These declines are somewhat offset by expected increases in production in Brazil, the EU, China, South Africa, and Mexico. Corn production in Argentina is expected to decline because of an expected decrease in sown area. Brazilian corn production is expected to increase because of higher sown acreage. Corn production in Ukraine is expected to decrease because of lower sown area and yields. Corn production in Russia is expected to decrease as the impact of higher sown area is offset by lower yields.

Consumption upward: Global corn use is forecast to increase by less than 1 percent to a record 1,221 million tonnes in 2024/25, as use outside the United States increases slightly.

Stock down: Global corn ending stocks for 2024/25 are forecast at 312.3 million tonnes, down 800,000 tonnes from the previous year. Stocks in major exporting countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. are projected to decline slightly, reflecting a U.S. stock increase mostly offset by declines in Brazil and Ukraine. China’s 2024/25 coarse grain imports are projected at 41.5 million tonnes, slightly higher than the previous year. Despite lower domestic energy-based feed prices, they will remain higher than on the world market. Corn imports are expected to remain at 23 million tonnes, barley imports will fall to 10 million tonnes, 200,000 tonnes lower than the previous year, and sorghum imports will increase to 8 million tonnes, 500,000 tonnes higher than the previous year.

Import/Export downgrade: Global corn imports are expected to fall less than 1 percent, driven by declining imports from several countries, including the EU, Canada, Iraq, and Venezuela. These declines are somewhat offset by increases in corn imports from Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, Egypt, and Iran.

Soybeans: production, stocks and crush, imports and exports all revised upwards

Production revised up: Global soybean production in 2023/24 was revised up by 25.3 million tonnes from last month to 420 million tonnes. This is mainly due to increased soybean production in South America and the US. Brazilian soybean production is forecast at 169.0 million tonnes, up from a revised 154.0 million tonnes in 2023/24. The 2023/24 Brazilian soybean production forecast figure has been revised down to 154.0 million tonnes from 155.0 million tonnes last month because of severe flooding in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean production is forecast at 51 million tonnes, up from 50 million tonnes the previous year.

Import/Export revised up: Global soybean imports were revised up this month by 6.09 million tonnes to 176 million tonnes. This is mainly due to an upward revision of China’s import figure by 4 million tonnes to 109 million tonnes, and an upward revision of global soybean exports by 7.7 million tonnes to 180 million tonnes this month, mainly due to upward revisions of Brazilian and US export figures. U.S. soybean exports are expected to increase this autumn because of Brazil’s 2024 soybean production cuts. US soybean exports will show a seasonally strong trend after this autumn’s harvest, but will then face pressure from increased South American production in 2025, so the US soybean share of global exports is expected to be 28%, down from the previous five-year average of 32%.

Crush up: The global soybean crush estimate has been revised up by 15.9 million tonnes, with the main soybean-producing countries’ soybean crushes all revised up this time. The increase in the US crush is due to higher demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock.

Stocks upward: Global soybean ending stocks were revised upward by 16.71 million tonnes to 128.5 million tonnes, with the largest increase in stocks in Brazil. Stocks also increased in Argentina, China, and other countries.

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