New Scientist (UK): How Population Decline Could Transform the Planet?

In 1968, Paul and Anne Ehrlich published their book The Population Bomb, which projected an imminent ecological disaster. They argued that the existing population growth trends had to be slowed or reversed, or else catastrophe would inevitably follow.

Species Shrinking Spontaneously, Unprecedented in History

Compared to that time, the global population has more than doubled, surpassing 8 billion, with various disasters occurring daily. However, we are now witnessing an unprecedented situation since life first emerged on Earth.

Since 2014, Italy’s population has decreased by about one million, while Japan’s population has sharply declined by five million since 2010. This spontaneous reduction in species size, without the occurrence of a major disaster, has never been seen before, as it contradicts traditional biological theories. This seemingly paradoxical fact is a result of the combined forces of human cultural and physiological evolution. With our unique evolutionary journey, we possess exceptional intelligence and are the only species capable of consciously controlling the size of our families.

Charles Darwin was the first to realize that, apart from humans, all other species view reproduction as the primary means of survival of the fittest.

Indeed, for any other organism, the moment they stop reproducing due to concerns about the consequences, they would immediately be eliminated by lurking predators and parasites.

Changing Attitudes as a Factor in Population Decline

But human knowledge and the culture we have created set us apart. In our childhood, our generation was troubled by many dangerous bacteria and viruses, such as mumps, measles, chickenpox, and diphtheria. Today, children live much more carefree lives. All of this stems from our unique ability to learn, allowing us to continually understand our place on this planet and comprehend the potential consequences of our actions.

These abilities are expressed to varying degrees in human societies, but some have reached heights never before achieved by any other species. In recent years, the attitude toward large families in many countries has shifted from unreserved admiration to uncomfortable embarrassment, and this shift in perspective is one major factor in the sharp decline in population.

Opening New Paths for Development

Traditional economists are concerned about today’s population trends, claiming that the reduction in the working population and the increase in the retired population will have serious negative financial impacts. However, the most intriguing aspect of this story is that the countries seemingly most affected by population decline are also the ones best equipped to overcome its challenges.

Take Japan, where the situation is most severe. The population decline will also provide some breathing space to address various social crises. By making subtle adjustments to tax policies and focusing more on the growing elderly population, Japan can somewhat mitigate the economic crisis it faces. Both Japan and Italy are now experiencing periods of reorganization, and one reason their median wealth per capita ranks among the highest globally is partly due to the slowdown in population growth.

This indicator suggests that both countries not only have abundant social wealth but that it is also relatively evenly distributed. Compared to being trapped in the development quagmire of extreme income inequality, these countries are better positioned to achieve a virtuous cycle.

Since life first appeared on Earth, human evolution has made us the first species to break free from the constraints of primitive reproductive desires. In the past, this ability might have led to our extinction, but today, it has opened new paths for development.