As global climate change and agricultural productivity continue to evolve, recent reports and forecasts from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicate that U.S. soybean and corn production expectations for 2025 may suffer a downward revision. This forecast will have a profound impact on the global food market and agricultural trade pattern.
According to the latest USDA supply and demand report released in November, the global soybean production estimate for 2024/2025 has been revised down to 425.4 million tonnes, a reduction of 352,000 tonnes from the October estimate. Soybean production in the United States also saw a significant downward revision, with an estimate of 4.461 billion bushels, a figure significantly lower than previous forecasts. Yield expectations fell to 51.7 bushels per acre, down 3.4% from October’s 53.1 bushels, a reduction that stems largely from unfavorable weather conditions as well as limitations in agricultural technology.
Similarly, the USDA lowered its 2024/25 U.S. corn yield and production estimates. Corn yields were lowered by 0.7 bushels per acre and production was lowered by 0.6 billion bushels. Corn production in 2024/25 is forecast to reach 15.143 billion bushels, down from last month’s forecast of 15.203 billion bushels, and still the second-highest production in U.S. history behind 2023/24’s 15.341 billion bushels.
Factors Affecting U.S. Soybean And Corn Production
Impact of Extreme Climate Events: Over the past few years, the U.S. has experienced unusual weather conditions, including extreme heat, drought, and flooding, among other weather events. In 2025, climate model projections indicate that the major U.S. Midwestern-producing regions could face drier weather conditions. Drought can directly reduce crop yields by affecting the timing of corn and soybean planting and growth cycles.
Increased Threat of Pests and Crop Diseases: Climate change not only brings extreme weather, but also leads to an increase in the frequency and intensity of pests and diseases. In recent years, there have been frequent outbreaks of serious pests and diseases, such as corn borer and soybean rust, which have caused significant economic losses to farmers. If pests and diseases continue to be rampant in 2025, they could further drag down crop yields.
Declining Soil Fertility and Soil Management Issues: Large-scale agricultural cultivation has long put tremendous pressure on land resources, leading to declining soil fertility. As highly fertilizer-demanding crops, maize and soybean require sufficient nutrients to achieve desired yields. However, as fertilizer prices have risen in recent years, many farmers have had to reduce fertilizer inputs, further exacerbating the problem of declining soil fertility, which in turn could affect crop yields in 2025.
USDA’s Downgraded Expectations And Market Reaction
In the face of unfavorable weather and crop growth conditions, the USDA may lower its production expectations for soybeans and corn in 2025. This adjustment may be reflected in declining yields, reduced planted acreage, and the impact on stocks and exports.
Declining yields: The USDA usually bases its forecasts for yields on factors such as planted acreage, weather models, soil moisture and crop growth. If these factors show a negative trend, yield expectations are bound to decline. This is especially true for drought-stricken areas, where corn and soybean yields can decline significantly.
Reduced planting area: Against the backdrop of increased uncertainty about agricultural prices, many farmers may choose to plant other cash crops to reduce planting risks. This situation is particularly reflected in the adjustment of corn acreage. If corn prices fail to return to high levels in 2025, planted acreage could decrease, affecting overall production.
Inventory and Export Impacts: Soybeans and corn are the main export agricultural products of the United States. A downward revision in production will directly affect the U.S. ability to export agricultural products, which in turn may push up prices in the international market. In addition, a reduction in domestic inventories will increase supply pressures, making agricultural markets more volatile.
Chain Reaction in The Global Market
Increased price volatility: The United States is a major supplier of soybeans and corn globally, and a downward revision of its production expectations could trigger price increases in the international market. Particularly in the face of increased demand from major importing countries such as China, tight market supply will lead to upward price movement, which poses a threat to global food security.
Planting adjustments in other producing regions: A downward revision of United States production could prompt major soybean and maize producers, such as Brazil and Argentina, to expand plantings to fill market gaps. However, this adjustment tends to be lagging and it will be difficult to bridge the supply-demand gap quickly. In addition, South America is also facing the threat of climate change and cannot fully guarantee increased production.
The market for agricultural inputs is affected: the expected decline in yields is likely to drive up demand for agricultural inputs such as seeds, fertilizers and pesticides, further pushing up the prices of these commodities. At the same time, agri-tech companies are likely to increase their R&D investment in new drought- and pest-resistant varieties to meet future challenges.
Coping Strategies And Future Outlook
To cope with possible downward yield adjustments, USDA and farmers can adopt the following strategies:
- Improve agricultural technology: promote precision agriculture and smart planting techniques to boost crop yields and resilience. For example, the use of satellite monitoring and drone technology for precision fertiliser application and irrigation can help improve soil utilization and crop resilience.
- Optimising cropping structure: Farmers are encouraged to adjust their cropping structure in accordance with market demand and climatic conditions, so as to reduce their reliance on single crops and increase the diversity of their sources of income. Promoting drought-tolerant crops and high value-added cash crops is also an effective strategy.
- Strengthen international cooperation: In the face of the common challenges posed by global climate change, the U.S. should strengthen cooperation with other soybean- and corn-producing countries to jointly address climate risks. At the same time, through international cooperation and technology exchanges, global food production capacity can be increased to ensure the stability of the supply chain.
The USDA’s likely downward revision of soybean and corn production expectations in 2025 reflects the multiple challenges currently facing agricultural production. A combination of extreme weather, pests and diseases, and declining soil fertility have led to pressure on crop yields. Although the downward revision of expectations may bring short-term market volatility, the global agricultural system is still expected to remain relatively stable and sustainable in the future through scientific and technological advances, optimization of cropping structures and international cooperation.
This adjustment is expected to affect not only the United States domestic agricultural production and farmers’ earnings, but also may trigger a chain reaction in the global market, which deserves the high attention of policymakers, farmers and market participants.
