Recently, the United States and Europe’s desire to obtain rare earth and other resources from Ukraine has shown the world that critical minerals have become a new battlefield for multinational wrestling and gaming. Cooperation in the field of critical minerals is not only an idealistic appeal for global harmony, but also a pragmatic strategy based on economic rationalism.
Critical Minerals are Valued by Many Countries
The term “critical minerals” is more of a political term than a scientific term, and different countries have different lists of critical minerals based on their domestic conditions and geopolitical goals. In 2022, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) released a list of 50 critical minerals, believing that they play an important role in the United States’ “national security, economy, renewable energy development and infrastructure.” These 50 minerals include arsenic used in semiconductor manufacturing, beryllium used as an alloying agent in the aerospace and defense industries, cobalt, lithium and graphite that are essential for the manufacture of lithium-ion batteries, indium that makes the screen respond to finger touch, and tellurium used for solar power generation. The U.S. Energy Act stipulates that the list must be updated every 3 years.
According to the EU official website, in 2011, the EU published a list of 14 critical raw materials, which was one of the priority actions under the EU’s “Raw Materials Initiative” in 2008. The EU has pledged to update the list at least every three years. On May 23, 2024, the EU’s first comprehensive mineral strategy came into effect. The regulation, called the Critical Raw Materials Act, lists 34 materials as critical raw materials, which are considered to be vital to the European economy and have a high risk of supply interruption, including coking coal and tantalum used in electronic components, capacitors and medical devices. The bill also lists 17 materials used in fields such as renewable energy and defense as strategic raw materials.
The Distribution of Critical Minerals is Extremely Uneven
In terms of lithium, according to an article published on the website of the Australian think tank Lowy Institute for International Policy, nearly 80% of the world’s known lithium reserves are distributed in four countries, including Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, the “lithium triangle countries” in South America, as well as Australia.
Cobalt is a silvery-blue metal that stabilizes lithium-ion batteries and extends their service life. Statistics from German data company Statista show that the Democratic Republic of the Congo has the world’s largest cobalt reserves. As of 2024, the country’s cobalt reserves are about 6 million tons, and the global cobalt reserves for that year are about 11 million tons. It is predicted that by 2040, global demand for cobalt for batteries will increase from 70,000 tons in recent years to 260,000 tons.
From clean energy technology, electronics and automobiles to power transmission infrastructure, data centers and defense systems, everything depends on copper. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a US think tank, previously published an article titled “Latin America: The World’s Copper Base”, saying that Latin America has mined nearly half (46%) of the world’s raw copper. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that by 2030, the total copper production of existing mines and mines under construction will only meet 80% of global copper demand.
Graphite is also used to make electric vehicle batteries. The world’s natural graphite is mainly located in China, Brazil, Madagascar and other countries. In 2022, the global graphite market was worth about US$23.7 billion. This figure will continue to increase, reaching $38 billion by 2028 at a compound annual growth rate of 8.01% from 2023 to 2028.
Rare earth elements can be used to make electronic components, electric vehicle batteries, etc. According to USGS data, the global rare earth mineral reserves in 2024 are about 90 million tons, of which China has 44 million tons, Brazil has 21 million tons, and India has 6.9 million tons. Nickel is the main raw material for making electric vehicle batteries. According to the 2023 US Geological Survey report, Indonesia and Australia are the countries with the largest nickel reserves in the world, with nickel reserves of 21 million tons each.
The World Enters a New Era of Metal Politics
Trump’s recent remarks on Ukrainian assets are not the first time he has mentioned taking over a country’s mineral resources in his new term. The US president has talked about acquiring minerals in Greenland, a Danish autonomous territory, and Canada. This marks that after a century of “petropolitics”, the world is entering a new “metal politics era”.
A recent report released by CSIS pointed out that of the 50 critical minerals listed by USGS, the United States imports 50% to 100% of 41 of them. The United States was once a global leader in the production of critical minerals, but increasingly stringent environmental regulations and the transfer of business to low-cost regions have led to the shrinking of domestic mining and refining capacity.
In 2022, the United States established a “Mineral Security Partnership” with 13 countries and the European Commission. In April 2023, the United States and the European Union reached an agreement to establish a mineral metal supply chain network around the G7 countries.
According to data from the EU official website, 98% of the EU’s boron comes from Turkey, 71% of platinum group metals come from South Africa, and most of the cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Because of its strong external dependence, the EU’s “Critical Raw Materials Act” stipulates that the organization must diversify the supply of critical raw materials by 2030. For three years, the European Commission has been quietly signing memorandums of understanding with potential suppliers of critical raw materials, including Canada, Argentina and other countries. As of April 2024, the EU has signed 12 memorandums of understanding.
Cooperation is a Pragmatic Strategy
On the upstream supply side, there is no danger of global depletion of critical minerals because the net reserves of many key minerals are increasing. Some countries with very rich reserves of key minerals are currently not producing much due to factors such as imperfect infrastructure, insufficient funds, and weak transportation capacity. In addition, the industrial chain of key minerals involves multiple links, and only some countries have mid- and downstream industrial chains such as smelting, processing, and application.
In the past few years, hundreds of policies on the resilience and production of critical minerals have been introduced. However, many of these policies are not multilateral in nature and may contribute to geopolitical divisions. Any international strategy that truly addresses the issue of critical minerals must put the interests of the “global South” countries at the core. This is crucial, in part because a large part of critical minerals are located in these countries.
