While the human life span has increased markedly since the 19th century, new research shows that despite recent advancements in medicine, we may have reached our longevity peak—and most of today’s children are unlikely to live to 100.
A latest study published in Nature Aging conducted an analysis of life span data of the longest-living populations from Australia, France, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States, from 1990 to 2019.
The researchers found that since 1990, the average lifespan has only risen 6.5 years in the countries in the study, which causes uncertainty in expectations that human life expectancy would exceed 100 years in people born today.
The analysis suggests that only 15% of females and 5% of males are expected to live to 100 years old, “altogether suggesting that, unless the processes of biological aging can be markedly slowed, radical human life extension is implausible in this century,” per the study.
Life expectancy depends on environmental conditions, says Stephen Kritchevsky, Ph.D., professor in gerontology and geriatric medicine at Wake Forest University School of Medicine. “In harsh environments, life expectancy is lower,” he continues, “The highest now observed are in Hong Kong (88 and 83 years for women/men respectively).”
As far as the claim that humans are only living as long as they are now because of advancements in medical technology, Kritchevsky disagrees. “In 1960, men aged 65 could expect to live an additional 13 years and in 2020 that number became 17 additional years. Some of this gain is that people have come into old age in better shape, and some of this gain is due to better health care, but the additional years of life since 1960 are mostly not related to medical technology,” he explains.
Medicine is organized to target a single disease at a time, he continues. “With aging, many diseases increase in onset exponentially. So, preventing one doesn’t prevent the others.” And Kritchevsky says, with aging, many of our intrinsic capacities decline: things like muscle mass and strength, brain processing speed, maximal heart rate, and kidney function. “If these capacities fail too much, you die.” These changes occur with age even when a person does not have underlying diseases, and there isn’t much activity in medicine directed at trying to slow or reverse these kinds of changes.
Many different variables factor into the aging process. The most important drivers of longevity would be sex—women tend to live longer— and social determinants of health—birth size, neonatal and pediatric care, good nutrition, education, and good economic circumstances, Kritchevsky explains. Additionally, research has shown that inflammation and insulin resistance play a big role in the progression of aging.
The bottom line
According to this study, we as humans may have reached our peak lifespan potential. And while this may seem like a depressing subject, it’s also important to be aware that there are many lifestyle changes you can make to your diet and exercise routine to slow down aging and increase your odds of living a longer, healthier life.
Still, you should approach any “anti-aging” product with a grain of salt. Today, there are a lot of “bad actors trying to sell aging cures to hopeful and anxious people,” says Kritchevsky. “This paper suggests that any claims directed at significant increases in longevity are bogus,” he adds.
And, at the very least, this latest study emphasizes the importance of making the most of the time we do have, whether that’s years, decades, or a century.
